2022 - Team Ratings After Round 12

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Twelve teams moved places on MoSSBODS this week, and seven did the same on MoSHBODS, leaving the two Systems agreeing about the ranking of all teams except those in 8th, 9th, 10th, 15th and 16th. The same twelve teams are now rated as above-average on MoSSBODS and on MoSHBODS.

The Top 5 teams on both Systems are, in order, Melbourne, Geelong, Western Bulldogs, Sydney, and Fremantle.

Altogether, there were three multiple-spot movers on MoSSBODS, including Gold Coast up 4 spots, Sydney up 3 spots, and Adelaide down 2 spots. There were only two multiple-spot movers on MoSHBODS, including Sydney up 3 spots, and Brisbane Lions down 2 spots.

The correlation between MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS Combined Ratings remains very high, and now stands at +0.9934. The correlation on defence alone is +0.985 and on offence alone +0.993.

To provide some historical context to the teams’ current Ratings, the chart below shows the Ratings of selected teams from V/AFL history after 12 rounds of their respective seasons.

Melbourne and Geelong remain the only teams rated higher at this point in the season than 50% of the teams in history that subsequently made the Grand Final, while West Coast and North Melbourne are amongst the teams with the lowest-ever offensive ratings.

The animation below maps the path that each 2022 team has followed to reach its current Rating.

On the Component Ratings, on offence, we find MoSSBODS now with a Top 3 of Cats, Dogs, and Lions, and MoSHBODS with Lions, Tigers, and Dogs. On defence, we find both Systems still with a Top 3 of Dockers, Dees and Cats.

On MoSSBODS, 7 teams are now rated positively on offence and defence (up 1), 6 are rated negatively on both (no change), one is rated positively on offence but negatively on defence (no change), and 4 are rated negatively on offence but positively on defence (down 1). The correlation between the teams’ MoSSBODS offensive and defensive Ratings now stands at +0.73.

And, finally, to MARS, which re-ranked only four teams this week, leaving the Top 7 and Bottom 6 unchanged.

MARS continues to agree with the MoS twins about Melbourne being the top-ranked side, but continues to disagree about a number of other teams, in particular Brisbane Lions, who it ranks more highly, and Fremantle, who it ranks less highly.

In terms of groupings, we now have, roughly:

  • Melbourne, Brisbane Lions, and Geelong

  • Western Bulldogs and Sydney

  • St Kilda, Richmond, Fremantle, and Port Adelaide

  • Carlton

  • Gold Coast and Collingwood

  • GWS

  • Hawthorn and Essendon

  • Adelaide

  • West Coast and North Melbourne

Ten teams are rated as better-than-average by MARS, with only Collingwood and Gold Coast also Rated higher than 993.

The Rating gap between first and last currently stands at just almost 79 Rating Points, which is up by about 1 Rating Point compared to last week.

Looking across the rankings of all three Systems and ordering the teams based on the current competition ladder, we still find relatively large differences for a few teams, the largest being for Carlton and Collingwood (and, to a lesser extent, Brisbane Lions), where the teams’ ladder positions are well above their System Ranking, and for Geelong and Western Bulldogs, where the teams’ ladder positions are well below their System Rankings.

MARS currently has the outright most-extreme ranking for 11 of the teams, while MoSSBODS has it for only three teams and MoSHBODS for just two.

MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS now agree about the ranking of 13 teams, MoSHBODS and MARS about five teams, and MoSSBODS and MARS about six teams.

If we consider the range of rankings that the three Systems have attached to each team, we find that Brisbane Lions (4 spots) has the widest range of rankings, but that the range is just two spots or less for all but four teams.

The three Systems have the same ranking for Collingwood, GWS, Hawthorn, and Melbourne.