2022 - Round 13 : Probably Not Six of the Best

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This week looms as a potentially disappointing round, rescued maybe by the Lions v Saints and Pies v Dees matchups.

All six games are expected to be won by at least three-and-a-half goals, and half of them by more than four goals,

Altogether that makes for an average expected margin of 26 points per game, which is very high in the context of Round 13s from recent history. It is, in fact, the highest average for a Round 13 since 2016.

It drives the all-season average expected margin up to 18.4 points per game, which, it maintained, would be the highest average since 2018.

TIPS AND PREDICTIONS

When even the smallest favourite is a three-and-a-half goal favourite, it’s not surprising that this week’s supply of contrarian tips has come solely from Home Sweet Home.

We find more disagreement amongst the Margin Predictors with four games registering double-digit forecast ranges, including 20 points in the North Melbourne v GWS game, and 15 points in the Collingwood v Melbourne game.

Altogether, Bookie_3 has the most extreme margin forecast in five games. No other forecaster has it in more than two games.

Amongst the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors, the largest range of probability estimates is 12% points for the North Melbourne v GWS game, followed by 11% points for Collingwood v Melbourne.

Altogether, MoSSBODS_Prob has the most extreme probability estimates in four games, and Bookie_RE, Bookie_LPSO, and MoSHBODS_Prob in three games each.

WAGERS

If market movements mean anything, it was a good week to get in early, as the prices and lines secured by Investors at around 9am on Monday had moved considerably by noon on Tuesday.

What those Investors have is three head-to-head and two line bets.

(Please click on the image below to access a larger version.)

We have:

  • Essendon win / draw / loss: +0.6c / +0.2c / -0.2c

  • North Melbourne win / draw / loss by 40 pts or less / otherwise: +1.9c / +1.5c / +1.1c / -1.5c

  • Collingwood win / draw / loss by 24 pts or less / otherwise: +1.2c / +0.8c / +0.4c / -0.9c

So, best case, a 3.7c gain, and worst case a 2.6c loss.

To finish, here are MoSSBODS’ and MoSHBODS’ opinions about likely team scoring.

Commentary about these forecasts will come in the week's Overs/Unders blog and MoSHPlay’s various forecasts will be posted after the relevant team line-ups are made public.