2022 - Round 3 : Overs/Unders

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We’re still waiting for the bookmakers to show their hands in the West Coast v Fremantle game but, in the eight games we know about, MoS and bookmaker opinions are generally quite similar, with the very notable exception of the GWS v Gold Coast game.

Looking at the highests and lowests, and bearing in mind that we are a game short for the bookmakers, we have:

HIGHEST SCORING GAME

  • MoSSBODS: GWS v Gold Coast

  • MoSHBODS, TAB and Sportsbet: Western Bulldogs v Sydney

LOWEST SCORING GAME

  • MoSSBODS & MoSHBODS: West Coast v Fremantle

  • TAB and Sportsbet: GWS v Gold Coast

HIGHEST SCORING TEAM

  • MoSSBODS & MoSHBODS: Melbourne

  • TAB and Sportsbet: Brisbane Lions

LOWEST SCORING TEAM

  • MoSSBODS & MoSHBODS: Essendon

  • TAB and Sportsbet: North Melbourne

The MoS twins have Melbourne as the only team expected to rack up three figures (and then only if you round up their forecasts), while the bookmakers have only Brisbane Lions with the same expectation.

WAGERS

Just one wager this week, the first under bet of the season, with a second rejected because of the forecast of rain for Sydney on Saturday (but still very tempting given the absurdly large estimated overlay).

Estimated overlays range from about 0 to 21 points, with roughly a 6 point overlay in the game where Investors have the wager.

PREVIOUS RESULTS

Round 2 was another profitable one for Totals betting using MoSSBODS’ opinions, and saw MoSSBODS record the lowest Mean Absolute Error (MAE) for Game Totals for the second week running. MoSHBODS recorded the low MAE for Home Team Scores, and the TAB for Game Margins and Away Team Scores.

(Note that there were errors in the Round 1 calculations, which I’ve rectified here.)

MoSSBODS won both of its overs wagers with the TAB, moving it to a 4 and 0 record for the season.

Across all games, MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS recorded 5 from 9 results against both bookmakers, moving them to 11 from 18 (61%) for the season against both.