2022 - Round 3 : Far Bolder

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The bookmakers are still yet to post markets for the West Coast v Fremantle derby but, since there’s no way of telling how long it will be until they do so, let’s take a look at what we do know about the eight other games.

TIPS AND PREDICTIONS

There’s a bit of contrarianism about this week, with a lot from Consult The Ladder, some from Home Sweet Home, and a little from the MoS twins and RSMP_Weighted. There are, then, three Tipsters suggesting upsets in the Carlton v Hawthorn, and St Kilda v Richmond games.

Amongst the Margin Predictors, we’ve double-digit forecast ranges in six of the eight games, including a massive 27 points in the Carlton v Hawthorn game, and 19 points in the St Kilda v Richmond game, both thanks to the contrarian MoS forecasts.

MoSSBODS_Marg has the most extreme probability estimates in six games, and Bookie_3 and ENS_Linear in three games each.

Amongst the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors there are three games with double-digit percentage point probability estimates, with the range 28% points in the Carlton v Hawthorn game, and 19% points in the St Kilda v Richmond game.

MoSSBODS_Prob has the most extreme probability estimates in seven games, and Bookie_LPSO in four games.

WAGERS

The contrarian posturing of the MoS twins in a number of games has translated into a slate of four head-to-head wagers representing almost 13% of the original Head-to-Head Fund, and four line wagers representing almost 10% of the original Line Fund

(Please click on the image below to access a larger version.)

Individually, the line bets range in size from 1.1% to 4.2% of the original Line Fund, and the head-to-head bets from 1.1% to 7.7% of the original Head-to-Head Fund.

As the Ready Reckoner shows, a best-case set of results would see the price of the Combined Portfolio increase by just over 8c, and a worst-case set would see it decrease by just over 10c. Something of an important round then.

Hawthorn carries the most risk this week, with the difference between a Hawks loss by 16 points and one by 17 points representing more than a 5c change in the value of the Combined Portfolio. Thereafter, we have St Kilda representing a potential swing of just under 5c, Melbourne a swing of just over 4c, Adelaide a swing of about 2.5c, and Western Bulldogs a swing of just under 1.5c.

To finish, here are MoSSBODS’ and MoSHBODS’ opinions about likely team scoring.

Commentary about these forecasts will come in the week's Overs/Unders blog and MoSHPlay’s various forecasts will be posted after the relevant team line-ups are made public.