2022 - Round 2 : Settling In

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Last week was fairly encouraging, and this week promises a number of contests that could legitimately go either way.

Here’s what the models think about the nine games on offer.

TIPS AND PREDICTIONS

Again scant contrarianism this week, with seven home team favourites tamping Home Sweet Home’s usual tendencies. Consult The Ladder has chimed in with five underdog tips, RSMP_Simple with one, and the MoS twins with one each.

Amongst the Margin Predictors, we’ve double-digit forecast ranges in five games, including 21 points in the Port Adelaide v Hawthorn game, 17 points in the Gold Coast v Melbourne game, and 15 points in the Essendon v Brisbane Lions game.

Bookie_3 and Bookie_9 are the most extreme Predictors in four of the nine games, and MoSSBODS_Marg in three.

Amongst the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors there are four games with double-digit percentage point probability estimates, with the maximum of 18% points in the Port Adelaide v Hawthorn game.

Bookie_LPSO has the most extreme probability estimates in six games, and the MoS twins in four games each.

WAGERS

A much quieter week this week, with just three Head-to-Head and two Line bets, all but one of them on underdogs.

(Please click on the image below to access a larger version.)

The line bets range in size from 0.8% to 2.5% of the original Line Fund, and the head-to-head bets from 0.5% to 3.1% of the original Head-to-Head Fund.

As the Ready Reckoner shows, a best-case set of results would see the price of the Combined Portfolio increase by about 3.7c, and a worst-case set would see it decrease by about 3.6c.

Hawthorn carries the most risk this week, with the difference between a Hawks loss by 26 points and one by 25 points representing more than a 3c change in the value of the Combined Portfolio. Thereafter, we have Western Bulldogs representing a potential 1.5c swing, Geelong 1c, Essendon 0.9c, and Gold Coast 0.8c.

To finish, here are MoSSBODS’ and MoSHBODS’ opinions about likely team scoring.

Commentary about these forecasts will come in the week's Overs/Unders blog and MoSHPlay’s various forecasts will be posted after the relevant team line-ups are made public.