2022 - Team Ratings After Round 1
/The MoS twins are still parameterised in such a way that they make some of their largest adjustments in the early parts of the season, as evidenced by the Geelong, Gold Coast, Carlton and Fremantle climbs this week, and the matching Essendon, West Coast, and Adelaide falls.
Overall, 14 teams were re-ranked by MoSSBODS, and 15 by MoSHBODS, 10 by multiple spots on MoSSBODS, and 11 by multiple spots on MoSHBODS. Melbourne, however, still sit in 1st on both Systems, ahead of Geelong, Western Bulldogs, Sydney, and Brisbane Lions.
The correlation between MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS Combined Ratings now stands at +0.9860.
On the Component Ratings, on offence we find MoSSBODS with a Top 3 of Dees, Cats, and Lions, and MoSHBODS with Dees, Cats, and Dogs. On defence we find MoSSBODS with a Top 3 of Dees, Cats, and Swans, and MoSHBODS with Dees, Cats, and Dogs.
On MoSSBODS, 5 teams are now rated positively on offence and defence, 6 are rated negatively on both, 2 are rated positively on offence but negatively on defence, and 5 are rated negatively on offence but positively on defence. The correlation between the teams’ MoSSBODS offensive and defensive Ratings now stands at +0.828.
And, finally, to MARS, which re-ranked a relatively restrained 10 teams this week, leaving Melbourne in first place ahead of Brisbane Lions, and elevating Geelong into third.
Six teams moved by more than a single spot, the biggest movers being Essendon and West Coast, who both fell three places.
Only six teams remain rated as better-than-average by MARS, and there is also a ten-point gap between the last of them, Sydney (1,008.6), and the next best, Richmond (998.8).
The Rating gap between first and last currently stands at just under 39 Rating Points. By comparison, at the same point last year the range was just under 37 Rating Points.
Looking across the rankings of all three Systems and ordering the teams based on the current competition ladder, we find relatively large differences for a number of teams.
MARS, as usual, provides the most outlying rankings of the three Systems, it having the outright most-extreme ranking for 15 of the teams, with Fremantle and Richmond perhaps the most notable examples.
By comparison, MoSSBODS has the outright most-extreme ranking for five teams, and MoSHBODS for just two.
It is, though, early, early days, and all three of the Rating Systems will remain frisky for the next month or so. We should expect to see some greater alignment between the ladder ordering and that of the Rating Systems as time progresses.
Lastly, if we consider the range of rankings that the three Systems have attached to each team, we find that Fremantle and Richmond (7 spots) have the widest range of rankings, while 11 teams have rankings than differ by no more than 2 spots, including North Melbourne and Melbourne, for which all three Systems have the same ranking.
