2021 - Round 10 : Firmer Favourites

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Again this week, only two games are expected to be decided by less than 2 goals, but the difference is that the remainder are expected to be won by between about 3 and 7 goals. As a result, the average expected margin of 20.2 points per game (according to the TAB bookmaker) is almost 3 points per game higher than last week.

TIPS AND PREDICTIONS

It’s probably not all that surprising, then, that Home Sweet Home and Consult The Ladder have a near oligopoly on contrarian head-to-head tips, the only other suppliers - and limited suppliers at that - being the RSMP twins in the Dockers v Swans, and Giants v Eagles games.

Amongst the Margin Predictors, we have double-digit ranges in five games this week, including ranges as large as 18 and 16 points in the Crows v Dees, and Giants v Eagles games.

Of the 18 extreme forecasts, MoSSBODS_Marg, ENS_Linear and Bookie_3 have four each, MoSHBODS_Marg has three, and RSMP_Simple has two.

Amongst the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors, there are double-digit percentage point ranges only in the Giants v Eagles (12% points), and Pies v Power (12% points) games.

MoSSBODS_Prob and Bookie_OE each have five of the extreme estimates, while MoSHBODS_Prob and Bookie_LPSO have three each.

WAGERS

Investors face six wagers this week, two head-to-head only wagers on two teams, and head-to-head plus line wagers on two more. Combined, the half-dozen bets represent just under 3% of the original Combined Portfolio.

(Please click on the image below to access a larger version.)

The various scenarios for each wagered-upon game in terms of its possible effects on the value of the Combined Portfolio are summarised in the Ready Reckoner below.

R10 - Ready Reckoner.png

GWS control most risk (in terms of the difference between the best and worst outcomes), with a swing of 2.2c possible from a single, regrettable goal that converts, say, a 5-point win into a loss. Collingwood could also turn a 1.1c win into an 0.8c loss, but that would take more effort to achieve - conceding almost 4 unanswered goals.

Overall, the worst case is a loss of 2.9c for the Combined Portfolio, and best case is a gain of 3.3c.

To finish, here are MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS opinions about likely team scoring.

Commentary about these forecasts will come in the week's Overs/Unders blog and MoSHPlay’s various forecasts will be posted after the relevant team line-ups are made public.