Leading and Winning in AFL

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One of the bets that's offered by TAB Sportsbet is on which of the teams will be the first to score 25 points. After analysing scoring event data for the period 2008 to 2014 provided by Paul from afltables.com I was surprised to discover that the first team to score 25 points goes on to win the game over 70% of the time.

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Predicting the Final Margin In-Running (and Does Momentum Exist)?

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Just a short post tonight while we wait for the serious footy to begin. For this blog I've again called upon the services of Formulize, this time to find for me equations that predict the final victory margin for the Home team (which might be negative or zero) purely as a function of the scores at the various quarter breaks.
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In-Running Wagering: What's the Best Strategy?

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With services such as Betfair now offering in-running wagering opportunities, the ability to accurately assess a team's chances of victory at any given point in a game is now of considerable commercial value. Imagine, for example, that your team, who are at home, lead by 18 points at the first change. Would a wager on them at $1.40 be advised?
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