Having a new - and, it seems, generally superior - way to calculate Bookmaker Implicit Probabilities is like having a new toy to play with. Most recently I've been using it to create a family of simple Margin Predictors, each optimised in a different way.
In a previous blog on the in-running models I generated point estimates for the Home team's victory probability at different stages in the game under a variety of different lead scenarios. In this blog I'll review the level of confidence we should have in some of those forecasts. More formally, I'll generate 95% confidence intervals for some of those point forecasts.
I've found yet another MAFL-related use for the Eureqa tool, this time to determine the precise relationship between a team's head-to-head price and the start it's giving or receiving on line betting.
A simple plot of the history of a team's head-to-head price (or the probability that can be inferred from it) versus its start on line betting makes it obvious that there's a relationship between the two and that it's a non-linear one, but in the past I've been constrained by my own (lack of) ingenuity and persistence in generating sufficient possibilities to find its exact nature.