Bookmaker Implicit Probabilities: Empirical Value of the Risk-Equalising Approach
/A few blogs back I developed the idea that bookmakers might embed overround in each team's price not equally but instead such that the resulting head-to-head market prices provide insurance for a fixed (in percentage point terms) calibration error of equivalent size for both teams. Since then I've made only passing comment about the empirical superiority of this approach (which I've called the Risk-Equalising Approach) relative to the previous approach (which I've called the Overround-Equalising Approach).
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