The Probability of a Draw
/Lately it seems I've been specialising in blogs on topics that I've covered before, and tonight's blog is no exception. It's on estimating the probability of a draw.
Read MoreEstimating Fair Head-to-Head Prices : Part I
/You'll recall that the total overround embedded in the head-to-head market, ignoring the possibility of a draw, is calculated by summing the reciprocal of the head-to-head prices for each team. So, for example, if the head-to-head prices for a game were $1.20 / $4.60, the overround would be 1/1.2 + 1/4.6, which is 105.1%. Some subtract 1 from this figure and would report this overround as 5.1%.
Read MoreA Friendly Wager on the Margin
/You're watching the footy with a mate who leans over and says he reckons the Cats will win by 15 points. How much leeway should you give him to make it a fair even money bet? Surprisingly - to me anyway - the answer is 24 points either way. So, if the Cats were to record any result between a loss by 9 points and a win by 39 points you should pay out.
Read MoreThe Head-to-Head Fund and the Risk of Ruin
/Just a quick post tonight in response to an interesting query from an Investor about the 'risk of ruin' of the Head-to-Head Fund. In other words, how likely is it that the Head-to-Head Fund will lose all of the money invested in it before the season's out.
Read More
