Richard McElreath, in one of the lectures from his Statistical Rethinking course on YouTube aptly and amusingly notes that (and I'm paraphrasing) models are prone to get excited by exposure to data and one of our jobs as statistical modellers is to ensure that this excitability doesn't lead to problems such as overfitting.
Read MoreVisitors to the MatterOfStats site in 2014 will be reading about ChiPS team Ratings and the new Margin Predictor and Probability Predictor that are based on them, which I introduced in this previous blog. I'll not be abandoning my other team Ratings System, MARS, since its Ratings have proven to be so statistically valuable over the years as inputs to Fund algorithms and various Predictors, but I will be comparing and contrasting the MARS and the ChiPS Ratings at various times during the season.
Read MoreIn years past, the MAFL Fund, Tipping and Prediction algorithms have undergone significant revision during the off-season, partly in reaction to their poor performances but partly also because of my fascination - some might call it obsession - with the empirical testing of new-to-me analytic and modelling techniques. Whilst that's been enjoyable for me, I imagine that it's made MAFL frustrating and difficult to follow at times.
Read MoreMAFL is a website for ...
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