2022 : Simulating the Final Ladder After Round 2

With twice the amount of information about each team’s 2020 season form, it’s no surprise that the estimates of their Finals and other chances have changed quite a bit again this week.

(For details about the methodologies I’ve used, see this earlier blog).

LADDER FINISHES

Here, firstly, are the projections for teams’ ladder finishes. The results from the Standard method are on the left, and those from the Heretical method on the right.

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Looking first just at the Standard Methodology, we see that the range of Expected Wins now spans the range from 8.6 to 14.8, which has grown in size a little from our earlier estimate of 8.9 to 14.6, as Melbourne’s estimated tally has risen by 0.2 Expected Wins, and West Coast’s has declined by 0.6 Expected Wins to see it fall back into last place.

The biggest declines in Expected Win tally came for Port Adelaide (-1.2), and GWS (-1.0), while the biggest increase came for Hawthorn (+1.1).

In terms of Top 8 chances, there were a large number of sizeable changes, especially for Hawthorn, Carlton, Collingwood, St Kilda and Richmond (all increases), and Western Bulldogs, Fremantle, Port Adelaide, and GWS (all decreases). Seven teams are now assessed as having between 1-in-3 and 3-in-5 chances of playing Finals. (There are also six teams assessed as having between 1-in-4 and 1-in-2 chances of finishing Top 4).

Comparing the results for the Standard and Heretical Methodologies we find, as usual:

• A larger range of Expected Wins from the Heretical approach (7.3 to 17.3 wins)

• Similar Top 8, Top 4, and Minor Premiership probability estimates from both methodologies for all teams. The correlation between the estimated Top 8 chances from the two methodologies now stands at about +0.98.

TEAM AND POSITION CONCENTRATION

The HHI figures for the most recent simulation replicates appear below, with those from the Standard methodology on the left, and those from the Heretical methodology on the right. (For information about the HHI, also see that previous blog linked to earlier).

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Standard Methodology - 50,000 Replicates

HERETICAL METHODOLOGY - 2,500 REPLICATES

Here too the results are quite similar, although the Heretical methodology generally has teams effectively competing for fewer positions, with the notable exceptions of Fremantle, North Melbourne, and Geelong. Both Systems broadly produce the same estimates for the number of teams effectively competing for each ladder position, although the Heretical methodology has fewer competing for the Minor Premiership.

Both methods still suggest that most teams are effectively competing for between about 13 and 17 different ladder positions, and that most ladder positions have effectively between 13 and 17 teams competing for them. The exceptions amongst the teams are Melbourne and West Coast, and amongst the ladder positions 1st, 2nd, and 18th.

It is also, as usual, the mid-table positions that are associated with most uncertainty.