AFLW 2023 - Simulations After Round 3

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Below is a summary of the latest simulation results for the AFLW (produced using a version of the methodology described in this blog post).

So, roughly speaking, WoSHBODS currently groups the teams as folows:

  • Tier 1 (90%+ chances to play Finals): Melbourne, North Melbourne, Adelaide, Gold Coast, and Geelong

  • Tier 2 (80% chances to play Finals): Brisbane

  • Tier 3 (50% chances to play Finals): Richmond and Essendon

  • Tier 4 (35-40% chances to play Finals): Collingwood, Carlton, and Sydney

  • Tier 5 (2.5-8% chances to play Finals): Fremantle, Port Adelaide, Hawthorn, and St Kilda

  • Tier 6 (1% or less chances to play Finals): Western Bulldogs, GWS, and West Coast

The big movers this week in terms of Finals chances were:

  • Brisbane and Carlton: +14% points

  • Sydney and St Kilda: -12% points

  • Essendon: -10% points

And, here’s what we now have for the Finals.

Broadly speaking, the ordering of the teams in terms of Flag chances is not all that different to the market’s, albeit that the market has Brisbane a little higher (equal 2nd), and Sydney (15th) and Gold Coast (9th) a little lower.