AFLW Round 3 Results - Turns Out Predictive Models Work (Who Knew?)

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Three weeks in now, and WoSHBODS has tipped 78% of the winners, registered an 18.8 points per game margin MAE, and facilitated a 23% ROI on wagering. Be hard not to be happy about that.

That 23% ROI, given just an 0.15 turn, means that the Combined Portfolio is up by 3.5c on the season.

We can review WoSHBODS’ Accuracy and MAE by subdividing games based on the final margin, which we do in the table at right.

It shows that WoSHBODS is 19 from 20 in games that have been won by 2 goals or more, but also that its MAE is under 12 points per game for all the games won by under 4 goals. It’s the blowouts, as always that inflates the MAE.

In games won by less than 2 goals, WoSHBODS is only 2 from 7 in terms of accuracy, which is just slightly worse than chance.

We can, similarly, review the wagering performance of the Funds by making separate calculations for home versus away status, and favouritism versus underdog status, which we do in the table at left.

It reveals that the most lucrative wagering in terms of ROI has come from head-to-head wagering on home team underdogs and line wagering on away team favourites.

Least lucrative has been line wagering on home team favourites, and head-to-head wagering on away team underdogs.

TEAM DASHBOARD

Finally, this week we’ll include the season’s first Ranking on Dashboard Metrics chart, which shows that the metric rankings currently most highly correlated with the competition ladder rankings are:

  • MoS Win Production Function: +0.99

  • % of Quarters Won, Points Conceded, and Scoring Shots Conceded: +0.93

  • Q4 Performances and Goals Conceded: +0.91

  • Own Points Scored: +0.77

  • Own Scoring Shots and Q2 Performances: +0.76

  • Own Scoring Shots Generated: +0.72

The metrics least correlated are:

  • Q3 Perfomances: +0.25

  • Opponent Conversion: +0.46

  • Own Conversion: +0.47

And, lastly, below is the full extended version of the Team Dashboard.

It shows, among other things, that no team has won more than 9 of the 12 quarters they’ve played in, and that West Coast has won only one. It also shows that Brisbane have generated 6.3 more scoring shots than their opponents across entire games, 4.3 of them in Q1s alone.

Also, none of Collingwood, GWS, or Western Bulldogs have scored a goal in Q4s, nor Sydney in Q1s or WestCoast in Q2s. Conversely, Geelong is yet to concede a goal in Q1s, nor Fremantle or Melbourne in Q4s.