In the same way that accuracy can be a poor estimator of a forecaster's ability, raw wins, draws and losses can be a poor estimator of a team's ability, so it always amuses at this time of year how readily some commentators will conflate where a team sits of the ladder with how well they've played across the season. There really are such things as lucky wins and unfortunate losses, and sometimes the less able team wins and the better able one loses.

Only Consult The Ladder and Home Sweet Home tipped fewer than seven winners this week, which left ENS_Linear still with a two tip lead over Bookie Knows Best at the top of the Leaderboard.

ENS_Linear is now on 134.5 from 189 (71%).

If, as it seems, the mean total score for an AFL game in 2018 is 165 to 170 points, last weekend was a textbook example of regression to the mean after the relative scorefest that was Round 20.

Just three games this week are expected to finish with a margin under 3 goals, but seven with a margin under 5 goals, which has made for an all-game average of about the same as last weekend's 24.5 points per game. This week, it's 24.2 points per game.

There was very little movement on either MoS System this week, with MoSSBODS swapping Sydney into 10th and dropping Brisbane Lions into 12th, and MoSHBODS moving Essendon ahead of Geelong, and the Western Bulldogs ahead of the Brisbane Lions. For the remaining teams, there were rating changes, but they were relatively small.

The MoS twins were very bullish about the Dees' chances this weekend and paid the price in all three of our forecaster fields.

Last week produced almost 190 points per game, which was about 3.5 to 4 goals higher than our forecasters' expectations, but this hasn't much elevated expectations for this week, especially those of the bookmakers.

It seems very unlikely we'll enjoy close football this weekend of the likes we saw on Friday and Saturday of Round 20 - at least not in the quantity we saw there, with this week's fare including only one game with an expected margin of under two goals.

This week for the MoS twins was mainly about MoSSBODS' coming to agree with MoSHBODS' ranking of West Coast, and the pair coming to agree also about the ranking of Port Adelaide. West Coast are now 5th on both Systems, and Port Adelaide 10th.

The RSMP twins regained lost ground this week, but still sit three tips behind the second-placed Bookie Knows Best and four behind the leader, ENS_Linear, who is now on 122.5 from 171 (72%).

Another week, another sub-170 point average total score expectation, though this week we can maybe hope that four games will exceed that threshold.

All five of this week's Saturday games are expected by the bookmakers to be won by less than a goal, though the average for the whole round is blown out somewhat by the 44 points plus expected margins for the three Sunday games and the 21.5 point expected margin in the Friday game.

Some stability at the top of the MoS twins' ratings this week where we find exactly the same Top 4 teams at the end of the round as we had at the start. For MoSSBODS, that's Richmond, Melbourne, GWS and then Collingwood, while for MoSHBODS it's Richmond, GWS, Melbourne and then Collingwood.

The RSMP twins dropped a tip further back this weekend, leaving Bookie Knows Best now four tips clear of them, and ENS_Linear now six tips clear on 116.5 from 162 (72%).

This week, according to the two bookmakers, we should expect about 165 points per game, which is roughly one point per game below the season average.

Only two games this week have expected margins of more than 19 points, and three are in single digits, which means that the average expected margin for the round at 16.6 points per game is the lowest it's been for a single round since Round 13 and the sixth-lowest it's been all season.

Traditionally, this has been the time of year when team rankings on MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS have been` fairly stable, and the norm was for a handful of teams to bounce up or down by mostly a single spot, and occasionally a couple.

Just two underdog wins this week, and none of the Head-to-Head Tipster front-runners tipping either sees the round finish with ENS_Linear still two tips clear and now on 110.5 from 153 (72%).

We seem now to have settled into a collective view - shared by the MoS twins and bookmakers alike - that the new normal is rounds of AFL football producing average total scores somewhere around the mid 160s.

This week comprises four games where the expected margin is under two goals, and five more where it's five goals or more, which has landed the all-game average at just under 27 points per game, the third-highest average for a round in the season to date.