2018 - Team Ratings After Round 20

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This week for the MoS twins was mainly about MoSSBODS' coming to agree with MoSHBODS' ranking of West Coast, and the pair coming to agree also about the ranking of Port Adelaide. West Coast are now 5th on both Systems, and Port Adelaide 10th.

That left the two Systems agreeing about the ranking of 10 teams, and differing in the ranking of only two teams by more than a single place:

  • Brisbane Lions, who are 12th on MoSSBODS and 14th on MoSHBODS
  • Sydney, who are 14th on MoSSBODS and 12th on MoSHBODS

It also left the two Systems with a more obvious split at the top of the ratings, with GWS now 2 Scoring Shots clear of Collingwood in 3rd on MoSSBODS, and Melbourne 5 points clear of Collingwood, also in 3rd on MoSHBODS.

Looking next at the component ratings, we see that:

  • MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS now have Top 3s on offence of Melbourne, Richmond, and then GWS
  • MoSSBODS has a Top 3 on defence of Richmond, Port Adelaide and then GWS
  • MoSSBODS has a Top 3 on defence of Richmond, GWS and then Port Adelaide

Across all 18 teams, no team is now ranked more than two places differently on either offence or defence by the two Systems. Maybe, at last, they're beginning to make some sense of a team ratings hierarchy for this season ...

The latest version of the animated GIF of MoSSBODS ratings appears below, and shows movements up or down by  more than 0.5 Scoring Shots on either offence or defence only for:

  • West Coast +1.1 on offence
  • Adelaide +1.0 on offence
  • GWS +0.7 on offence
  • Western Bulldogs +0.7 on offence
  • Carlton -0.6 on offence
  • GWS +0.6 on defence
  • Fremantle -1.1 on defence
  • Port Adelaide -1.0 on defence
  • St Kilda -0.7 on defence
  • Carlton -0.7 on defence

On Combined Rating, the big movers were:

  • GWS +1.3
  • Melbourne +0.9
  • Adelaide +0.9
  • Western Bulldogs +0.9
  • Carlton -1.3
  • Fremantle -1.0
  • Gold Coast -0.9
  • Port Adelaide -0.9
  • St Kilda -0.9
MoSSBODS Ratings At End of Rounds 1 to 20 - Smooth.gif

Relative to history, Richmond's Combined Rating remains (albeit now just) in the top decile of teams at this point in the season that ultimately played in the Grand Final, while Melbourne and GWS are the only other teams above the median. 

Sydney, who are now 8th on the competition ladder, still have a Combined Rating lower than all previous Grand Finalists at the end of Round 20 (lower even than St Kilda this year, who sit 15th on the ladder, and the Brisbane Lions, who sit 16th).

Carlton and Gold Coast continue to visit mostly unexplored south-western parts of the chart.

As things stand now:

  • seven teams have a positive offensive and a positive defensive rating (unchanged from last week)
  • one has a positive offensive and a negative defensive rating (up one from last week)
  • four have a negative offensive and a positive defensive rating (unchanged from last week)
  • six have a negative offensive and a negative defensive rating (down one from last week)

In total, only eight teams now have a positive offensive rating while 11 have a positive defensive rating.

On ChiPS this week, only five teams changed places, and only GWS (up 4 into 3rd), Geelong (down 2 into 6th), and Hawthorn (down 2 into 7th) by more than a single spot. MARS moved nine teams, but only GWS (up 4 into 5th) by more than a single spot.

Both Systems still agree that the top two teams are Richmond and Melbourne, but ChiPS now has GWS in 3rd while MARS has Geelong there.

The two Systems differ now by more than two places in their rankings only of Collingwood, ranked 4th on ChiPS and 7th on MARS, and Geelong, ranked 6th on ChiPS and 3rd on MARS.

Looking across the team rankings of all four Systems and comparing them with the current competition ladder, we find that:

  • Geelong, Essendon, and the Brisbane Lions sit significantly lower on the competition ladder than their ranking on at least two of the Rating Systems.
  • West Coast, Sydney and Fremantle sit significantly higher on the competition ladder than their ranking on at least two of the Rating Systems.
  • Sydney (8th to 14th) is ranked six places differently across the Rating Systems.
  • Essendon (6th to 11th) is ranked five places differently across the Rating Systems.
  • Geelong (3rd to 7th) is ranked four places differently across the Rating Systems.
  • No other team is ranked more than three places differently across the Rating Systems.