2015 - Team Ratings After Round 1
/The Crows are this week's biggest movers on both ChiPS and MARS Ratings, their gains of over 6 Ratings Points (RPs) lifting them into 3rd on ChiPS and 4th on MARS.
Read MoreThe Crows are this week's biggest movers on both ChiPS and MARS Ratings, their gains of over 6 Ratings Points (RPs) lifting them into 3rd on ChiPS and 4th on MARS.
Read MoreI have reason to be suspicious about seasons where MoS has been startling in Round 1, so I feel much more satisfied that the results for Round 1 of 2015 are pleasingly positive without being yell-from-the-rooftops amazing.
Read MoreWith the Essendon situation now resolved, at least for the time being, and the TAB consequently willing to field complete Head-to-Head and Line markets, MoS is now locked in for the first week of the season.
Read MoreWith the 2015 season just a few weeks away and an increase in the number of new subscribers and visitors to MatterOfStats, I thought it time to write a blog that describes what goes on here in the Wages and Tips part of the site during the season proper.
Read MoreIt's March already and I've not written a thing here about my plans for MoS for the upcoming season.
Read MoreRecently, with clients, I've been doing quite a bit with Hadley Wickham's ggplot2 package for R, which has rekindled my interest in data visualisation. Naturally, as these things do, that's led me to think about effective and interesting ways to view and summarise next year's AFL schedule, a couple of my attempts at which I'll publicise here in this blog.
Read MoreAfter Saturday's demolition of the Swans by the Hawks it's fitting that both ChiPS and MARS Rate the Hawks at season's-end as the Number 1 team - though, to be fair to ChiPS, it thought that was the case before the GF too.
Read MoreObviously not the result that anyone expected nor the one that Investors wanted this week - and, frankly, not quite the Grand Final that I think the season deserved. Congrats to the Hawks regardless - they were maybe the best and certainly one of the two best teams all season.
Read MoreAlmost all of MoS thinks the Swans will win on Saturday.
Read MoreSo comprehensive was Sydney's win over the Roos and so faltering the Hawks' over Port Adelaide that MARS has seen fit to elevate Sydney's Rating above Hawthorn's for the first time this season.
Read MoreOn Friday night the Swans won, by enough to cover the Line market spread but by too much to land the more optimistic of our SuperMargin wagers. And then on Saturday evening the Hawks won, but only just, and not even by enough to land the less optimistic of our SuperMargin wagers. So it goes.
Read MoreWith two short-priced Home team favourites this week, Investors were never going to face the same level of wagering activity that they endured or enjoyed (you choose which) last weekend.
Read MoreJust minor adjustments to ChiPS Ratings this week, with no effect on team Rankings, and some slightly more significant adjustments to MARS Ratings that swap Port Adelaide into 3rd and Fremantle into 4th, which seems entirely apt given last evening's Semi Final result.
Read MoreTwo upset victories by the Roos and Port Adelaide knocked more than 5c from the price of the Recommended Portfolio this week as Investors saw no collects from a full round's wagering for the first time this season.
Read MoreIn Finals series of years past, MoS' wagering has been generally subdued, so this week's flurry of activity by all three Funds on the two available contests came as a surprise.
Read MoreChiPS this week felt that the Hawks, Swans and Power did better than could be expected in their respective wins, and that the Dons were also overachievers despite going down to the Roos. Consequently, it lifted the Ratings of these four teams and dropped those of their opponents by equal amounts. MARS, however, as it usually does, rewarded all four winners with Ratings increases.
Read MoreDespite a restricted schedule of just four games and tightened bet size restrictions, the three MoS Funds combined this weekend to produce the 8th-best return for a single round - the 3rd-best since Round 14 - and only the second 100% ROI of the season, the other coming way back in Round 1 when the Head-to-Head Fund snared the upset Giants' win over the Swans, and the Margin Fund bagged two collects.
Read MoreThough the aggregate amount wagered has, as expected, declined markedly this week - a combination of fewer games to bet on and a further ratcheting down of the Fund parameters that control individual bet sizes - Investors still find themselves with an interest in every game.
Read MoreOnly four team's ChiPS' Ranking changed as a consequence of Round 23 results, none of them by more than a single place.
Read MoreWhile a loss wasn't the ideal way to finish the home-and-away season, with only nine more games on which any of the Funds can be profligate, the fact that the loss was a relatively small one virtually assures Investors of a profit for season 2014.
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