2014 - Team Ratings After Round 26
/So comprehensive was Sydney's win over the Roos and so faltering the Hawks' over Port Adelaide that MARS has seen fit to elevate Sydney's Rating above Hawthorn's for the first time this season.
ChiPS also lifted the Swans' Rating and dropped the Hawks', but not by as much, and therefore still Rates the Hawks more highly than the Swans.
Port Adelaide end the season Rated substantially higher than they started it, up by over 22 Rating Points (RPs) and by 7 places on ChiPS, and by almost 32 RPs and by 8 places on MARS. The Roos though ultimately failed to deliver against the potential that both Systems identified in their 2013 performances, finishing down by about 1 RP and 3 places on ChiPS, and up by 4 RPs but down by 2 places on MARS.
Sydney's lead at the head of MARS Ratings is a slender one, so narrow in fact that it's left us with the smallest difference in team MARS Ratings going into a Grand Final this century.
Differences in team MARS Ratings has been a broadly useful indicator of the final victory margin over the period since 2000, the correlation between the difference in Rating and the difference in final score being +0.48. In other words, the differences in Ratings have explained almost 25% of the differences in final scores. That's a higher proportion explained by MARS Ratings than by the TAB Line Market Handicap over the period for which I have that data.
Something that caught my eye while I was preparing this table was the scant Venue Experience that the Swans have at the M.C.G going into the GF. They've played at this Venue only three times in the past 12 months, in Round 6 versus Melbourne, Round 14 versus Richmond, and Round 18 versus Hawthorn. Hawthorn have vastly more experience at the ground having played there 14 times in the past 12 months.
