2014 - Round 10 : Just Lines and Margins

With four of the home teams short-priced favourites this week, the Head-to-Head Fund had only two decisions to make and, in both cases, it decided "no". Neither the Giants' $3.85 price tag nor the Blues' $2.15 offering were deemed sufficiently generous to merit a wager.

The Line Fund also passed on these two games, and on two more, eventually venturing just two wagers, one on the Cats giving the Roos 14.5 points start and the other on Port giving the Hawks 15.5 points start. The Margin Fund has two wagers on each of the Cats and Port Adelaide too, as well as two more on the Pies and two on the Suns.

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2014 - Round 9 Results: The Smallest of Losses

It's disappointing when a round that starts so well, finishes so poorly. Thursday night's victory by the Crows landed our head-to-head and line bets and had us 2.2c closer to profitability, but just a single additional collect throughout the remainder of the extended round saw us hand all of the 2.2c back, with a 0.1c tip toppling us just over the edge from break-even into loss

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2014 - Round 8 : Load-Bearing Power

On a per game basis this week we're investing more than we have in any other single round this season despite wagering in only four of the six games available and despite having no disturbingly large single wager. That's not to say though, as my clients in the risk industry might phrase it, that our risk is "fully diversified". We do have a fairly significant dependence on the performance of a single team.

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2014 - Round 7 : A Small, Significant Giants Bet

We've already collected this season, in Round 1, from a wager on GWS when they were priced in the "not this week" range, and this week the Head-to-Head Fund is hoping to reprise that symphony with a 2.1% wager on the Giants at $9.50 facing the horribly in-form Port Adelaide. Its bet is twice as large this week as it would have been were it made last week when the Fund's Kelly bet divisor was still at 20 and not 10. According to the Head-to-Head Fund, no other home team represents value in the head-to-head market this week - at least none of the three other home teams that it was entitled to consider for that privilege, they being the only ones priced at $1.50 or higher.

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2014 - Round 5 Results: Regressing to the Wrong Mean

For the second week in a row all three of the MatterOfStats Funds lost money, the Margin Fund most determinedly by shedding 5c, but the Head-to-Head and Line Funds with only slightly lesser and approximately equal alacrity, dropping 1.4c and 1.5c respectively. Combined the three Funds brought about a loss of just over 2c for the Recommended Portfolio, leaving it now down by a little less than 3c on the season.

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