September 03, 2012

2012 MARS, Colley, Massey and ODM Ratings After Round 23

September 03, 2012/ Tony Corke

For the second time in three weeks, MARS has seen fit to re-rank more than one half of the teams in the competition. This week it involved six of the teams participating in the Finals, leaving only Hawthorn in 1st and Collingwood in 4th unmoved.

September 02, 2012

2012 - End of Home-and-Away Season Wrap

September 02, 2012/ Tony Corke

With the home-and-away season behind us, it's time for review and reflection on a variety of fronts.

September 02, 2012

2012 Round 23 Results : We Persist

September 02, 2012/ Tony Corke

Normally, I keep whatever else is happening in my life out of MAFL. I figure that the people who visit here come because they've an interest in footy and maybe in statistics too, so the stuff that I post here should be about one or the other, or both, and not really about anything else.

August 29, 2012

2012 Round 23 - Wagers & Tips : It's All Happening at the MCG (and elsewhere)

August 29, 2012/ Tony Corke

The AFL has scheduled this week's matches so that all six of the games with a direct bearing on the finals take place on Friday and Saturday, rendering Sunday's three matchups of limited interest to anyone but the supporters of the six teams involved - and to MAFL Investors; we'll have 15% of the Line Fund and 5% of the Margin Fund running around the various parks on Sunday being vigorously pursued by the TAB Bookmaker.

August 27, 2012

2012 MARS, Colley, Massey and ODM Ratings After Round 22

August 27, 2012/ Tony Corke

On the basis of Round 22 results, MARS changed its ranking of five teams this week - for three teams that will be progressing to the Finals, and for two that won't.

August 26, 2012

2012 Round 22 Results : One Hand on the Ledge

August 26, 2012/ Tony Corke

Friday night brought no dramatic and lucrative draw - in truth, it never looked likely once the 0-0 scoreline was breached - but the Tigers' 45-point victory, while torpedoing the Dons' chances of playing in September, was the next-best result to a draw for Investors and set up a moderately profitable weekend.

August 22, 2012

2012 Round 22 - Wagers & Tips : A Draw for the Wagers

August 22, 2012/ Tony Corke

It's wrong, I know, to talk of "being proud" of some statistical algorithms that you've brought into existence, but that's the best description I can come up with to encapsulate what I felt as I ran the various MAFL Fund algorithms today, reviewed their outputs and made wagers accordingly.

August 20, 2012

2012 MARS, Colley, Massey and ODM Ratings After Round 21

August 20, 2012/ Tony Corke

Round 21 was a round that made many pundits rethink their views about a lot of teams, all four MAFL Rating Systems included.

August 19, 2012

2012 Round 21 Results : Our Two Cents Worth

August 19, 2012/ Tony Corke

It can only be politely described as misplaced optimism when you spend Sunday afternoon and evening hoping that a team vying for the Spoon can contrive to lose by only 5 or 6 goals to a team vying for the Flag and, in so doing, turn a small wagering loss for the round into a moderate profit.

August 15, 2012

2012 Round 21 - Wagers & Tips : Heliocentric Wagering

August 15, 2012/ Tony Corke

This week apparently - and relatively speaking - the TAB Bookmaker has priced most of the markets correctly. At least that's the collective view of the Head-to-Head, Line and Margin Funds which, between them, have ventured just ten wagers, representing only about one-eighth of Investors' original funds, the smallest single-round outlay since Round 13 and only the third-largest this season since all three Funds have been active. Now really wasn't the time I was looking for introspection ...

August 13, 2012

2012 MARS, Colley, Massey and ODM Ratings After Round 20

August 13, 2012/ Tony Corke

MARS altered its view about the ranking of just three teams this week, demoting Essendon and Fremantle by one spot each and elevating Richmond by two, mainly on the basis of the unexpectedly large victory by the Tigers.

August 12, 2012

2012 Round 20 Results : Near Enough Isn't Good Enough

August 12, 2012/ Tony Corke

As if taking a leaf from the Australian Olympians, Combo_NN2 finished with the SuperMargin equivalent of Silver in five contests this week, selecting the bucket next to the winner on each occasion (and failing to record a PB in any of them).

August 09, 2012

2012 AFL Futures Markets After Round 19

August 09, 2012/ Tony Corke

I've just reviewed the current TAB AFL Futures markets in light of the recent simulations I performed of the remainder of the season, and the only value bets at the moment (assuming you agree with the MARS Ratings I've used in the simulations) are:

Geelong to Make the Final 8 : offers an estimated 6% edge at $1.10
Geelong to Make the Top 4 : offers an estimated 14% edge at $8
St Kilda to Miss the Top 8 : offers an estimated 11% edge at $1.40
GWS to Win the Spoon : offers an estimated 4% edge at $1.40

August 08, 2012

2012 Round 20 - Wagers & Tips : SuperMargin Sweepstakes

August 08, 2012/ Tony Corke

We've 14 wagers this weekend, half of them in SuperMargin markets - not, I know, the favoured wager type for many MAFL Investors - five in Line markets, and just two Head-to-Head. Combined, they represent a little under 20% of the Fund and cover all nine contests.

August 06, 2012

2012 MARS, Colley, Massey and ODM Ratings After Round 19

August 06, 2012/ Tony Corke

Moreso than for most weeks of late, I was interested to see how the various Rating Systems dealt with the results that Round 19 turned up.

August 05, 2012

2012 Round 19 Results : Something Ventured, Nothing Gained

August 05, 2012/ Tony Corke

Another small loss for Investors this weekend as the Line Fund's three from five wasn't quite enough to make up for the Head-to-Head Fund's none from one and the Margin Fund's none from four.

August 01, 2012

2012 Round 19 - Wagers & Tips : There's Always Hope On A Sunday

August 01, 2012/ Tony Corke

One Head-to-Head, four SuperMargin and five Line bets comprise this week's wagering activity, collectively representing for Investors a best-case upside of about 22c and a worst-case downside of about 15c. Almost certainly the eventual outcome will be somewhere within those bounds - lightning not striking twice in the same place and all that - but that's still quite a range ...

July 31, 2012

2012 MARS, Colley, Massey and ODM Ratings After Round 18

July 31, 2012/ Tony Corke

This week, MARS was the System with the second-highest number of re-ranked teams, shuffling four teams by one spot each, and two more by two places. Its multi-spot movers were Essendon, down from 8th to 10th, and the Roos, up from 10th to 8th.

July 29, 2012

2012 Round 18 Results : Small Loss, Small Comfort

July 29, 2012/ Tony Corke

A Roos goal at the siren was, ultimately, all that stood between profit and loss for Investors this weekend. That goal nudged the Roos' victory margin to 54 points, exceeding the 49-point maximum stapled to our SuperMargin wager.

July 26, 2012

2012 Round 18 - Wagers & Tips : Gnarly Profiles

July 26, 2012/ Tony Corke

The TAB Bookmaker was a little less generous than I'd hoped, offering the Giants only 15-and-a-bit goals start in their how-much-will-they-lose-by clash with the Pies on Saturday, but this was still more than enough start to have the Line Fund algorithm firmly convinced about the merits of a wager on the Giants.

Wagers & Tips