2012 Round 19 Results : Something Ventured, Nothing Gained

Another small loss for Investors this weekend as the Line Fund's three from five wasn't quite enough to make up for the Head-to-Head Fund's none from one and the Margin Fund's none from four.

While none of the Head-to-Head or Margin Fund's wagers threatened to do anything much but register as a win in the TAB bookmaker's ledger, the Line Fund went close to dragging us into profitability as the Dogs' last quarter capitulation and inaccuracy proved only just severe enough to transform a four-goal three-quarter time deficit into a nine-goal defeat, thereby toppling our line bet of Dogs + 48.5 by just one straight goal. 

This week's 1c loss loss leaves Overall Portfolios down by 12.7c.

Head-to-Head tipping, though starting poorly with underdogs winning two of the round's first three games, ultimately proved relatively easy once again, as Head-to-Head Tipsters turned in an all-Tipster average of 6 correct picks from 9, headed by Ride Your Luck's and Follow The Streak's 7's, and reduced only a little by Home Sweet Home's and Short Term Memory's 5's. The performances of those atop the Leaderboard, however, did nothing to separate them, so we're left with H2H_Unadjusted_10, now on 126 from 162 (78%), leading a pack of a dozen Tipsters by a solitary tip. How amazing it is that, after 19 rounds, we still have a Tipster tipping almost 4 games out of 5 correctly.

MAFL's Margin Predictors also, as a group, turned in relatively strong performances, the all-Predictor MAPE for the round coming in at 31.95 points per game. Best-performed was H2H_Unadjusted_10 - not content with merely continuing to lead all-Tipsters on the MAFL Head-to-Head Predictiors table - with an MAPE of 27.76, one of the four H2H-based Predictors, all of which returned sub-28 MAPEs for the round.

Bookie_3 continues to lead all-Predictors on the Leaderboard and is now about 0.5 points per game ahead of Combo_7 who, in turn, heads Bookie_9 by about 0.1 points per game. As things stand now, for only the second time this season, no Predictor has a sub-30 season-long MAPE.

Reasonably accurate margin prediction again translated into better-than-chance line betting performance this week with the Margin Predictors, collectively, producing a 5.6 from 9 average. Bolstering this average, H2H_Unadjusted_10, as well as his three H2H brethren, correctly predicted 8 of 9 line results. So, after 166 games, every Margin Predictor except Combo_NN2 now has a better-than-chance season-long line betting record.

The H2H family also did well on SuperMargin wagering as three of them selected the correct bucket in two games, and the fourth selected the correct bucket in one game and was in error by a single bucket in another.

The remarkable SuperMargin performance of the Head-to-Head Predictors therefore continues: had we been lucky enough to follow their SuperMargin predictions since Round 1 of the season we would by now have enjoyed ROIs ranging from about 20 to 30%.

GWS' surprise victory depressed the probability scores of all Probability Predictors this week, so much so that they all wound up with marginally negative scores for the round. The TAB Bookmaker still leads out, with the H2H Predictors in 2nd and 3rd, and with WinPred and ProPred effectively tied in 4th.

The Line Fund algorithm, however, had a sterling round and recorded its 2nd-highest probability score for a round so far this season.