2025 - Round 4 : Settling In

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Yet another eight game round this week, which includes five games expected to be decided by two goals or less, one that’s expected to be decided by 4-and-a-half goals, and two more that are expected to be won by about seven-and-a-half to eight goals.

Let’s see what the models make of them.

TIPS AND PREDICTIONS

Given the expected competitiveness of so many games this week, it’s surprising to see contrarianism from only Home Sweet Home (2 games) and Consult the Ladder (3 games) except in the Dockers v Dogs game, where the MoS twins have tipped the Dogs.

Amongst the Margin Predictors we’ve double-digit forecast ranges in all but one game, most notably 31 points in the Roos v Swans clash, 23 points in the Tigers v Lions clash, and 16 points in the Dockers v Dogs matchup.

MoSSBODS_Marg has Extreme Predictor status in five games this week, and Bookie_9 in four.

Amongst the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors there are six games with double-digit percentage point forecast ranges including 25% points in the Roos v Swans game, and 17% points in the Dockers v Dogs game.

MoSSBODS_Prob has Extreme Predictor status in five games, and Bookie_LPSO in four.

WAGERS

Last year the MoS models were a lot more active in the early part of the season than they have been this season, which, on balance, is probably a good thing. It’s hard to believe that the bookmakers were mispricing around 60 to 70% of the first 40 or so games.

At this stage in 2025, the Funds are wagering about half the time, and generally at smaller sizes than was the case in 2024.

This week, the Head-to-Head Fund has opted for just three wagers, ranging in size from about 2 to 3%. The Line Fund has also opted for three wagers, but the size of those run from 2 to 6.6%.

(Please click on the image below to access a larger version.)

The Ready Reckoner this week reveals that Richmond carry the most risk in the sense that the difference between a loss by 44 points and a loss by 46 points represents 8.2% of the Combined Portfolio. On the same metric Geelong carry 3.7% risk, Gold Coast 3.2%, and Western Bulldogs 1.7%.

A best case set of results would boost the Combined Portfolio by just under 8c, while a worst case set would snip just over 9c off the price.

To finish, here are MoSSBODS’ and MoSHBODS’ opinions about likely team scoring.

Commentary about these forecasts will come in the week's Overs/Unders blog and MoSHPlay’s various forecasts will be posted after the relevant team line-ups are made public.