2025 - Round 4 : Overs/Unders

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MoSSBODS this week again disagrees with MoSHBODS on the Total for most games and by amounts ranging from 1 point to 7 points. On average, across all eight games, MoSSBODS is one point higher than MoSHBODS.

The two bookmakers are, on average, a couple of points higher.

Opinions about high- and low-scoring teams and games are as follows:

Highest Scoring Game

  • MoSSBODS: North Melbourne v Sydney

  • MoSHBODS: Gold Coast v Adelaide

  • Bookmakers: GWS v West Coast

Lowest Scoring Game

  • MoS twins: Port Adelaide v St Kilda

  • Bookmakers: Fremantle v Western Bulldogs

Highest Scoring Team

  • All: GWS

Lowest Scoring Team

  • All: West Coast

WAGERS

This week, Investors face only a single, unders wager.

That wager is for just over 3% of the Fund and has an estimated overlay of almost 9 points.

PREVIOUS WEEK

Last week was another good week for the bookmakers, as the TAB took overall honours for Away Team Scores, Sportsbet took overall honours for Home Team Scores, and the pair shared honours for Game Totals yet again. That left only Game Margins, which MoSHBODS secured.

MoSHBODS still has the season-long outright lead on Home Scores and Away Scores, but this week surrendered Game Totals to Sportsbet. The TAB maintained its top spot on Game Margins.

The leads are as follows:

  • Game Margins: TAB 2 points ahead of Sportsbet, and 15 ahead of MoSHBODS

  • Home Team Scores: MoSHBODS 3 points ahead of Sportsbet, 5 points ahead of the TAB, and 35 points ahead of MoSSBODS

  • Away Team Scores: MoSHBODS 6 points ahead of Sportsbet and the TAB, and 51 points ahead of MoSSBODS

  • Game Totals: Sportsbet 3 poimts ahead of the TAB, 25 ahed of MoSHBODS, and 51 ahead of MoSSBODS

It’s interesting to note that Home Teams are scoring, on average, between about 4 and 7 points more than our forecasters are predicting, which are pushing Totals above expectations by about the same amount.

Wagering and Game-by-Game Performance

There were only one two bets last week - two losers with the TAB on unders. That took MoSSBODS to a 1 and 4 season-long performance.

Overall, MoSSBODS was on the right side of the Total just 2 times in 8 against the TAB and Sportsbet. MoSHBODS managed 4 from 8 against both bookmakers.

That takes MoSSBODS to 9 from 27 (33%) against the TAB, and 8 from 27 (30%) against Sportsbet, and MoSHBODS to 15 from 27 (56%) against the TAB, and 14 from 27 (52%) against Sportsbet. It’s obviously still early days, but it is amusing that MoSHBODS is significantly outperforming MoSSBODS on the single metric for which MoSSBODS was optimised.