2024 - Round 5 Results - Steady
/Early week favourites fared far less well this week, with only half of them winning in a round that saw three games decided by 3 points or loss.
Most Head-to-Head Tipsters, having again mostly or entirely avoided contrarianism, registered just four from eight, leaving the ordering on the Leaderboard unchanged. The all-Tipster average for the round was 4.1 from 8 - bumped up slightly by Home Sweet Home’s 5 from 8 - which took the season-long figure to 30.8 from 46 (67%).
Margin prediction was far less strong this week, with mean absolute errors (MAEs) ranging from Bookie_LPSO’s 29.6 points per game to MoSHPlay_Marg’s 34.7, with the all-Predictor average coming in at 31.4 points per game.
That result for Bookie_LPSO moved it into top spot ahead of ENS_Linear and Bookie_3, and that for MoSHPlay_Marg saw it drop to last, about 11-and-a-half goals behind the leader.
Log probability scores were all slightly negative this week, but best for Bookie_OE and worst for MoSHBODS_Prob. Bookie_LPSO retained 1st place, however, ahead of Bookie_RE and then Bookie_OE, with best of the MoS trio still MoSHPlay_Prob in 4th.
WAGERING
The Roos’ loss on Sunday afternoon made profitability for the round an impossibility, but a rousing performance by the Eagles after that constrained the loss to a negligible one.
The Overs/Unders and Line Funds both made profits again this week, but not enough to overcame the Head-to-Head Fund’s just under 3c loss, which altogether meant that the Combined Portfolio finished down by 0.3c. It is now up by just over 1c on the season, that from a +1% ROT on a 0.99 turn.
(Forty-eight games into the season and we’ve already turned the enter Combined Fund once. That is very unlike years gone by.)
