2023 - Round 3 Results - Near Perfect
/Again this week, more home teams than opening market favourites were successful, which leaves the Head-to-Head Tipster Leaderboard in the very unusual position of having Home Sweet Home two tips clear of the pack on 18.5 from 27 (69%). MoSHBODS_Marg currently sits in 2nd, and MoSSBODS_Marg in 3rd. MoSHPlay_Marg sits second-last on the table, ahead only of Consult The Ladder.
The all-Tipster average, despite just five favourites winning, was 5.6 from 9, leaving the average Tipster with a percentage of just under 54.
The Margin Predictors’ mean absolute errors (MAEs) covered a range from MoSHBODS_Marg’s 21.7 points per game to Bookie_3’s 25.7 points per game, with the all-Predictor average coming in at 23.7 points per game per Predictor, down almost nine points per game on the Round 2 figure.
MoSHBODS_Marg’s performance was enough to catapult it into 1st place on the Leaderboard, and MoSSBODS_Marg also made good gains, climbing to 3rd. MoSHPlay_Marg did enough to propel itself up two places on the Leaderboard into 8th. ENS_Linear continued its fall and now finds itself in 6th.
Log probability scores were all near zero or mildly positive for the MoS trio, and mildly negative for the bookmaker-based predictors, which saw MoSHBODS_Prob take 1st place on the Leaderboard, and MoSSBODS_Prob take 2nd. MoSHPlay_Prob remains in last place, however, leading me to question whether player data is mostly unhelpful or whether I’ve yet to model it appropriately.
WAGERING
The absence of a Giants’ victory was the only thing standing between Investors and a full round of collects this week, as the Head-to-Head Fund jumped almost 5c, the Line Fund almost 6c, and the Over/Under Fund almost 4c.
All up, that meant that the Combined Portfolio jumped by over 5c, leaving it up 5.9c on the season, that from a 42% ROT on a 0.14 turn.
