2022 - Round 15 : Overs/Unders

/

The MoS twins broadly agree with the bookmakers this week on most games, and their overall average expected totals differ by only a point or two.

There’s mostly agreement this week also about which will be the highest- and lowest-scoring games and teams, with only MoSSBODS having a different opinion in a couple of instances.

HIGHEST SCORING GAME

  • All: Western Bulldogs v Hawthorn

LOWEST SCORING GAME

  • MoSSBODS: Carlton v Fremantle

  • MoSHBODS, TAB and Sportsbet: Port Adelaide v Gold Coast

HIGHEST SCORING TEAM

  • All: Western Bulldogs

LOWEST SCORING TEAM

  • MoSSBODS: GWS

  • MoSHBODS, TAB and Sportsbet: North Melbourne

WAGERS

Just one unders wager this week (inexplicably at the $1.88 price on offer with Sportsbet rather than the $1.90 available for the same Total at the TAB).

The estimated overlay for the wager is just under 11 points.

PREVIOUS RESULTS

Round 14 saw honours for the lowest Mean Absolute Errors (MAEs) spread across all four forecasters. MoSSBODS took it for Away Team Scores, MoSHBODS for Game Margins, the TAB for Game Totals, and Sportsbet for Home Team Scores.

That left MoSSBODS still (but now only) with the season-long best MAE for Game Margins, MoSHBODS still with the season-long best MAE for Home Team Scores, and the TAB still with the season-long best MAE for Away Team Scores but now also with the season-long best MAE for Game Totals.

MoSSBODS went 1 and 2 on its unders wagers with the TAB, moving it to a 19 and 9 record for the season with them. With Sportsbet, its record is still 6 and 3.

Across all games, MoSSBODS recorded a 2 from 6 result against the TAB, moving it to 64 from 117 (55%) for the season, and a 2 from 6 result against Sportsbet, moving it to 63 from 117 (54%) for the season.

MoSHBODS also recorded a 2 from 6 result against the TAB, moving it to 67 from 117 (57%) for the season against them, and a 2 from 6 result against Sportsbet, moving it to 62 from 117 (53%) for the season against them.