2021 - Round 7 : Overs/Unders

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Over the course of the season so far, the MoS twins have tended to over-estimate Total scores by about 5 points per game, and the bookmakers under-estimate them by about 3 points per game. This week, they’ve all but come together in deciding that the nine games will average somewhere around 162 to 163 points per game.

Looking at the highests and lowests, we see yet more signs of the great coming together.

HIGHEST SCORING GAME

  • All: Essendon v Carlton

LOWEST SCORING GAME

  • MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS: Collingwood v Gold Coast

  • TAB and Sportsbet: Brisbane Lions v Port Adelaide

HIGHEST SCORING TEAM

  • All: Melbourne

LOWEST SCORING TEAM

  • All: North Melbourne

WAGERS

Such high levels of agreement means that Investors face only two wagers this week, the second overs bet of the season on the back of last week’s 1 from 1 performance with this form, and one unders bet.

Estimated overlays range from about 8 points in the Tigers v Dogs game, to almost 20 points in the Pies v Gold Coast game.

PREVIOUS RESULTS

Round 6 saw Sportsbet and the TAB jointly record the lowest Mean Absolute Error (MAE) for Game Totals, MoSSBODS do the same for Home Team Scores, and MoSHBODS do likewise for Game Margins and Away Team Scores.

Overall, that means that MoSSBODS now has the best season-long performance on Home Team Scores, MoSHBODS on Game Margins, and Sportsbet on Away Team Scores and Game Totals,

MoSSBODS won its lone overs wager with the TAB last week, but only one of its three under wagers, leaving it with a 12 and 15 record for the season with the TAB, and with a 3 and 5 record for the season with Sportsbet.

In the five games in which MoSSBODS declined to wager it was on the correct side of the Total in four against both the TAB and Sportsbet. Across all games, MoSSBODS is therefore now 27 from 54 (50%) against the TAB, and 26 from 54 (48%) against Sportsbet, while MoSHBODS is 28 from 54 (52%) against both bookmakers.