2021 - Round 14 : Take Five

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Just the five games this week, with three of them expected to be won by under two goals, one by about three-and-a-half goals, and one by about five-and-a-half goals.

TIPS AND PREDICTIONS

That’s made for relatively little contrarian tipping amongst the Head-to-Head Tipsters, Home Sweet Home aside, and all of it coming in the Cats v Dogs game where Control The Ladder and the MoS twins are forecasting an upset Dogs victory.

Amongst the Margin Predictors, we have double-digit ranges in the first three games of the round, and much narrower ranges in the other two games.

Of the 10 extreme forecasts, Bookie_3, Bookie_9, and the MoS twins have two each, and RSMP_Weighted and ENS_Linear one each.

Amongst the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors, the first two games have double-digit percentage point ranges, while the remaining three have extremely narrow ranges.

MoSHBODS_Prob and Bookie_LPSO have three of the extreme estimates each, MoSSBODS_Prob has two, and Bookie_RE and Bookie_OE have one each.

WAGERS

Since MoSSBODS have the Dogs as favourites yet receiving 6.5 points start, and having the Suns as narrow underdogs yet receiving 19.5 points start, Investors face large line bets on the pair this week. They also face a more subdued wager on the Suns head-to-head at $3.25

(Please click on the image below to access a larger version.)

The possible outcomes in the two games are as follows:

  • Dogs lose by 6 points or less = 3.3% x 0.9 x 60% = +1.8c

  • Otherwise = -3.3% x 60% = -2.0c

  • Suns win = 3.5% x 0.9 x 60% + 0.9% x 2.25 x 30% = +2.5c

  • Suns draw = 3.5% x 0.9 x 60% + 0.9% x (3.25/2-1) x 30% = +2.1c

  • Suns lose by less than 20 points = 3.5% x 0.9 x 60% - 0.9% x 30% = +1.6c

  • Otherwise = -3.5% x 60% - 0.9% x 30% = -2.4c

Overall, the worst case is a loss of 4.4c for the Combined Portfolio, and best case is a gain of 4.3c.

To finish, here are MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS opinions about likely team scoring.

Commentary about these forecasts will come in the week's Overs/Unders blog and MoSHPlay’s various forecasts will be posted after the relevant team line-ups are made public.