2021 - Round 12 : Overs/Unders

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This week’s truncated round sees both the MoS twins and the bookmakers forecasting higher scores than they did last week, but the twins still a couple of points lower than the bookmakers.

Looking at the highests and lowests, we have.

HIGHEST SCORING GAME

  • MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS: Carlton v West Coast

  • TAB and Sportsbet: Essendon v Richmond

LOWEST SCORING GAME

  • MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS: Melbourne v Brisbane Lions

  • TAB and Sportsbet: Adelaide v Collingwood

HIGHEST SCORING TEAM

  • MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS: Carlton

  • TAB and Sportsbet: Sydney and Richmond

LOWEST SCORING TEAM

  • MoSSBODS: Fremantle

  • MoSHBODS, TAB and Sportsbet: St Kilda

WAGERS

Investors face only a single wager this week - an unders bet on the first game of the round.

The estimated overlay for that wager is only just over 7 points. They’re no higher than about 3.4 points in any other game.

PREVIOUS RESULTS

Round 11 was another good one for the MoS twins and saw MoSSBODS record the lowest Mean Absolute Error (MAE) for Game Totals, and MoSHBODS do the same for Game Margins and Away Team Scores. The Sportsbet bookmaker was best on Home Team Scores.

Overall, that means that MoSSBODS now has the best season-long performance on Home Team Scores and Away Team Scores, MoSHBODS on Game Margins, and Sportsbet on Game Totals.

MoSSBODS won three of five unders wagers with the TAB last week, leaving it with a 19 and 20 record with them, and still with a 4 and 5 record with Sportsbet.

Overall, MoSSBODS finished on the right side of the TAB bookmakers Totals in 6 of the 9 games, and on the right side of the Sportsbet Totals in 5 games. MoSHBODS finished on the right side in 5 of the games against both bookmakers. That left MoSSBODS at 54 from 99 (55%) against the TAB, and 52 from 99 (53%) against Sportsbet, and MoSHBODS at 51 from 99 (52%) against the TAB, and 52 from 99 (53%) against Sportsbet.