2020 - Round 22 (Week 4 of the Finals) - Tipping The Upset

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No matter how irrational it might be, recency bias will inevitably affect how a season’s performance of the MoS models will be remembered, and the result of the Grand Final will always be the most recent memory from that season. As such, the forecasts for that game always take on added, if perhaps unwarranted, importance.

This year, the MoS twins are both tipping an upset Cats victory, which, if anything, heightens the stakes.

The sizes of the forecast Cats victory have again been strongly influenced by the methods by which the MoS twins come up with Venue Performance Values (VPVs), although both System’s base ratings would’ve still seen them tipping the Cats to win even if they used zero VPVs for both teams.

You can see what they and the other MoS models think in the table at right.

We have then, only two contrarian tips amongst the Head-to-Head Tipsters, which gives RSMP_Simple the chance to catch MoSHBODS_Marg and tie for 2nd.

Amongst the Margin Predictors, MoSHBODS_Marg’s forecasts of a 28-point Cats win is comfortably different enough from that of the three Predictors sitting above it on the Leaderboard that a sufficiently large Cats win will see it finish in 1st. Given the forecasts, and the amounts by which MoSHBODS_Marg trails, a Cats win by 18 or more point should be enough to secure the win.

More broadly (assuming that the MoSHPlay_Marg forecast is similar to MoSHBODS_Marg’s), there are three possible outcomes:

  • Cats win by 18 or more: MoSHPlay_Marg finishes 1st

  • Cats win by less than 17, or Tigers win by 1 or 2: RSMP_Simple finishes 1st

  • Otherwise: Bookie_9 finishes 1st

Amongst the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors, the MoS estimates have created quite a large range.

The overall situation there is such that:

  • Richmond wins: Bookie_LPSO finishes 1st unless MoSHPlay_Prob’s estimate for a Tigers win is 22.7% or higher (in which case, MoSHPlay_Prob wins)

  • Geelong wins: MoSHPlay_Prob finishes first unless its estimate for a Tigers win is higher than 71.3% (in which case MoSSBODS_Prob wins)

RECENT FINALS HISTORY

The table at right below summarises the results from the last 21 years of men’s AFL Preliminary Finals based on the final home-and-away ladder positions of the teams, including the results from last week.

You can see that it was the first time 4th defeated 2nd in 7 attempts in a Preliminary Final, and fourth time 3rd defeated 1st in 8 attempts.

Teams from 4th still have a poor overall record in Preliminary Finals, however, having won only 3 of the 18 in which they’ve appeared.

Next, let’s turn our attention to the Grand Final ahead, which sees 3rd play 4th for the first time.

Teams finishing 3rd have a much record than those finishing 4th, having won in 6 of their 10 appearances. In contrast, teams finishing 4th have lost in both of their appearances.

Should Richmond prevail on Saturday, they’ll elevate teams finishing 3rd into a tie with teams finishing 2nd for most Flags.

Lastly, taking a whole-of-Finals approach, the table at left reveals how teams have fared across all weeks of the Finals, and shows the still superior records of teams from 1st to 3rd. Those are the only positions with better than 50% win rates in Finals.

Between them, the teams finishing Top 3 in the home-and-away season have won all but one of the last 20 Flags.

WAGERS

As many of you will know, MoSSBODS’ opinions drive Investors’ line and totals wagering, while MoSHBODS’ opinions drive their head-to-head bets.

MoSHBODS, however, is ignored when it recommends a wager on the away team, which means that, this week, Investors are shielded for MoSHBODS’ wild enthusiasm about the Cats.

They’re not, however, similarly shielded from MoSSBODS’ not-quite-as-rampant enthusiasm, and so find themselves with a 2.1% bet on Geelong +3.5 at $1.90.

Should that wager be successful, the Combined Portfolio will increase in value by 2.1% x 0.9 x 60%, which is 1.1c.

Any other result will see that Portfolio decline by 1.3c

So, in total, a 2.4c swing on the last game of the season. And why not?

Finally, here are the details behind the MoS twins’ forecasts (avert your eyes now).