2020 - Team Ratings After Round 21
/And it came to pass that the two highest-ranked teams on all three MoS Team Rating Systems progressed to the Grand Final.
On MoSSBODS, Geelong will enter that Grand Final with 3.7 SS Rating advantage, and on MoSHBODS with a 6.7 points advantage.
Only four teams are ranked differently by the two MoS Systems (Hawthorn, Sydney, Gold Coast, and Fremantle), and the correlation between MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS Combined Ratings now stands at +0.9914. It’s been quite the journey at times, but the eventual convergence of opinion has been impressive.
The MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS Ratings of the Grand Finalists last year at the same stage were:
Richmond +4.7 / +17.5
GWS +3.0 / +10.0
So, both of this year’s Grand Finalists are rated higher than both of last year’s. (In passing, I’d also note that Geelong were +2.8 / +12.8 at the same time last year.)
On the Component Ratings, on offence we find MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS with Top 3s of Cats, Lions, and Dogs while on defence both now have Top 3s of Cats, Tigers, and Power.
Only six teams are rated above-average on offence, but 13 above-average on defence.
On MoSSBODS, 6 teams are now rated positively on offence and defence (no change), 5 are rated negatively on both (no change), none are rated positively on offence but negatively on defence (no change), and 7 are rated negatively on offence but positively on defence (no change). The correlation between the teams’ MoSSBODS offensive and defensive Ratings now stands at +0.663, which is down very slightly compared to last week.
And, finally, to MARS, which re-ranked no teams this week, but extended the Cats’ lead at the top to almost 7 Rating Points.
Again, for comparative purposes the MARS Ratings of the Grand Finalists last year at the same stage were:
Richmond 1,030.6
GWS 1,017.0
So, according to MARS as well both of this year’s Grand Finalists are higher-rated than both of last year’s.
(Again I’ll note in passing that Geelong were rated 1,031.1 at this point last year. Also, the highest-ever MARS Rating is 1,071.3, which Essendon achieved after Round 26 of the 2000 season. A Rating of 1,041.1 is somewhere in the Top 300 all-time.)
Lastly, if we consider the range of rankings that the three Systems have attached to each team, we find that Carlton, Fremantle, and West Coast (4 spots each) have the widest range of rankings, while all remaining 15 teams have rankings than differ by no more than 2 spots (and 13 teams by no more than a single spot).
Brisbane Lions, Collingwood, Geelong, Port Adelaide, and Richmond are currently ranked the same by all three Systems.
