2020 - Team Ratings After Round 12
/Geelong now heads both MoS Team Rating Systems, and with something of a gap, though there’s debate about the ordering of the next five teams. MoSSBODS prefers Port Adelaide for 2nd, and Brisbane Lions for 3rd, while MoSHBODS has Richmond in 2nd, and Port Adelaide in 3rd.
Seven teams are ranked differently by the two Systems, but only two - Carlton and West Coast - by more than a single spot. There remains, as ever, a high degree of correlation about the underlying ratings themselves. That correlation now stands at +0.9948.
Ratings remain fairly compressed at the top such that, on MoSSBODS, 2nd and 11th are now separated by only 4.4 Scoring Shots, while on MoSHBODS, 2nd and 10th are separated by only 11.1 points.
Based on the similarity of Combined Rating, you could form the following rough groups based on the latest results:
Top Tier (span 3.5 Scoring Shots / 12.7 Points): Geelong, Port Adelaide, Brisbane Lions, Richmond, Collingwood, and Melbourne
Middle Tier (span 1.9 Scoring Shots / 7.0 Points): Western Bulldogs, Carlton, St Kilda, West Coast, and Hawthorn
Bottom Tier (span 3.4 Scoring Shots / 10.0 Points): GWS, Essendon, Gold Coast, Sydney, North Melbourne, and Fremantle
Outliers: Adelaide.
On the Component Ratings, on offence we find MoSSBODS now with a Top 3 of Lions, Cats, and Power, with the Tigers exiting, and MoSHBODS with exactly the same Top 3. On defence, MoSSBODS now has a Top 3 of Cats, Pies, and Power, after swapping the Top 2. MoSHBODS prefers the Tigers for 3rd spot.
On MoSSBODS, 6 teams are now rated positively on offence and defence (up 2), 5 are rated negatively on both (no change), none are rated positively on offence but negatively on defence (no change), and 7 are rated negatively on offence but positively on defence (down 2). The correlation between the teams’ MoSSBODS offensive and defensive Ratings now stands at +0.595, roughly the same as last week.
And, finally, to MARS, which re-ranked only 10 teams this week, including Essendon (down 4 spots), Sydney (up 4 spots), Port Adelaide (down 2 spots), and West Coast (up 2 spots).
It now has a Top 3 now of Geelong, Richmond, and West Coast, though the Cats now have a 10.2 Rating Point lead.
Ten teams are now rated as better-than-average by MARS, with the gap between the 2nd- and 10th-ranked teams only 22.1 Rating Points (probably the equivalent of about 16 or 17 points in a typical season with full-length quarters).
Forming rough team groups, as we did for the MoS twins, we might get:
Top Tier (span 17.5 Rating Points): Geelong, Richmond, West Coast, Brisbane Lions, and Port Adelaide
Middle Tier (span 12.5 Rating Points): Collingwood, Melbourne, GWS, St Kilda, Western Bulldogs, and Hawthorn
Bottom Tier (span 12.9 Rating Points): Sydney, Carlton, North Melbourne, Fremantle, Essendon, and Gold Coast,
Outlier: Adelaide
Looking across the rankings of all three Systems and ordering the teams based on the current competition ladder (using competition points per game as the primary basis for that ordering), we find St Kilda as the team highest on the ladder ranked lowest by the Systems, and Hawthorn as the team lowest on the ladder ranked highest by the Systems.
MARS continues to provide the most outlying rankings of the three Systems, it having the outright most-extreme ranking for 11 of the teams, with West Coast, GWS, Western Bulldogs, Carlton still the most notable examples, now along with Gold Coast.
By comparison, MoSSBODS has the outright most-extreme ranking for six teams, and MoSHBODS for just one.
Lastly, if we consider the range of rankings that the three Systems have attached to each team, we find that West Coast (7 spots) has the widest range of rankings, while 10 teams have rankings than differ by no more than 2 spots, including Adelaide, Geelong, Hawthorn, and St Kilda, for which all three Systems have the same ranking.
