2020 - Round 6 : Overs/Unders

There’s agreement in the broad but disagreement in the detail when you look at the MoS twins’ and the bookmakers’ score forecasts this week, with all four expecting an average score per game in the 123 to 125 points range, but differences in specific games as large as two goals.

View fullsize

The Piesv Hawks game is the one with the most significant levels of disagreement, the MoS twins expecting about two goals fewer than do the bookmakers. That makes it the MoS twins’ lowest-scoring game.

Overall, we have:

• HIGHEST SCORING GAME

  • All: Cats v Lions

• LOWEST SCORING GAME

  • MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS: Pies v Hawks

  • Easybet: Dees v Suns

  • TAB: Dees v Suns, and Blues v Dogs

• HIGHEST SCORING TEAM

  • MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS: Eagles and Power

  • Easybet and TAB: Eagles

  LOWEST SCORING TEAM

  • MoSH2020 and MoSS2020: Hawks

  • TAB and Easybet: Crows

WAGERS

With a little more disagreement this week, MoSSBODS has found four games worthy of wagers, three of them overs.

View fullsize

Estimated overlays run from a slightly nerve-wracking 7.1 points to a more comfortable 13.6 points.

In Round 5, MoSSBODS took only one of the four Mean Absolute Error (MAE) honours (Home Team Scores), allowing the TAB to produce low MAE for Game Totals, and Easybet to do the same for Away Team Scores and Game Margins.

View fullsize

Looking across the season, MoSSBODS leads all-comers on all but the Away Team Scores MAE metric, with MoSHBODS now narrowly ahead on that measure.

View fullsize

In games on which we had wagers in Round 5, MoSSBODS went 1 and 1 against Easybet, leaving it with a 71% success rate against the TAB, and a 57% rate against Easybet.

Across all games, MoSSBODS is now 25 from 44 (57%) against both the TAB and Easybet, while MoSSBODS is 26 from 44 (59%) against both.