2020 - Round 6 : A Tipster's Nightmare

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Seven of this week’s nine games are expected by the bookmakers to be won by less than two goals, and the only thing dragging the all-game average up to 9.9 points per game is the relatively comfortable, five goalish victory that the Eagles are expected to record.

TIPS AND PREDICTIONS

Despite the expected narrowness of margins, there’s not a lot of contrarian tipping amongst the Head-to-Head Tipsters, and over half of what’s there has come from Home Sweet Home and Consult The Ladder combined.

The remainder has come in the Port Adelaide v GWS game, where six of the eight Tipsters have sided with the narrow underdog home team.

Amongst the Margin Predictors there are forecasts on either side of zero in just one game, and ranges of 13 points or less in seven games. The largest range is for that Port Adelaide v GWS game, where the MoS twins’ confidence in Port Adelaide has stretched it to 21 points. The smallest range of just 6 points is in Thursday night’s Geelong v Brisbane Lions game at the SCG (now there’s a sentence no-one saw coming).

The mean expected margin across all games and all Predictors 8.7 points per game, which is a little over a point per game smaller than the bookmaker’s.

MoSSBODS_Marg dominates the week’s most extreme forecasts, recording such a forecast in six games, albeit by no more than three points in any single game. No other Predictor has recorded an extreme forecast in more than three games.

Lastly, turning to the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors, we find the largest range of probability estimates in percentage point terms in that Port Adelaide v GWS game where it’s 29% points, followed by the Dees v Suns game where it’s 21% points, and the Tigers v Swans game where it’s 18% points. Three other games have double-digit ranges in percentage point terms, so we might see some large variability in probability scoring this week.

MoSSBODS_Prob has the round's most extreme estimates in five contests, MoSHBODS_Prob and Bookie_RE in four each.

WAGERS

This week will be a busy one for Investors, with six head-to-head and five line wagers to keep track of. For one of those head-to-head wagers we again encountered a wager ceiling at BetEasy, and so have a blended TAB and BetEasy price.

(Please click on the image below to access a larger version.)

The blended price is for the head-to-head bet on Melbourne, five-sixths of which is at $1.81, and one-sixth at $1.80.

That bet is sized at a meaty 2.5% of the original Fund, but is only the third-largest head-to-head bet of the round. Slightly larger are the bets on Richmond and Collingwood.

It’s Port Adelaide, however, that carry most of this week’s risk (as measured by the difference between best and worst outcomes), with the difference between successful and unsuccessful wagers on them representing 5.8% of the original Combined Portfolio, as you can see in the Ready Reckoner below.

We also have Melbourne controlling a 3% swing, Adelaide 2.6%, Richmond 2.2%, Collingwood 1.4%, Carlton 1.2%, and Fremantle 0.9%.

In total, just under 9% of the original Combined Portfolio is at risk, and the maximum upside is 8.2%.

To finish, here are MoSS2020's and MoSH2020's opinions about likely team scoring.

Commentary about these forecasts will come in the week's Overs/Unders blog and MoSHPlay’s various forecasts will be posted after the relevant team line-ups are made public.