2020 - Round 15 : Four Days' Long (Even with the Byes)

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Just six games this round, starting on a Tuesday and ending on a Friday. Welcome to 2020 football.

TIPS AND PREDICTIONS

It’s just the MoS twins in the Giants v Blues game, and Home Sweet Home in the Swans v Dees game, who are offering any contrarian tips this week.

Amongst the Margin Predictors, only that Giants v Blues game sees forecasts on either side of zero. Four games have forecast margins that span less than 2 goals, and none span more than 3 goals.

The MoS twins’ forecasts differ from the competition leader, Bookie_9’s, forecasts by about 30 or 40 points, which means they’ll, at best, roughly halve the current deficit.

Amongst the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors we find three games where the range of probability estimates exceeds 10% points, including the Giants v Blues game where it’s 20%, and the Lions v Pies game where it’s 19%.

WAGERS

Just three wagers this week, a lone but sizeable head-to-head wager on the Hawks, and two, smaller, line wagers on the Dons and the Blues.

(Please click on the image below to access a larger version.)

The relevant Combined Portfolio calculations for these are as follows:

Hawks head-to-head

  • Win: 5% x 0.4 x 60% = +1.2%

  • Draw: 5% x -0.3 x 60% = -0.9%

  • Loss: 5% x 60% = -3%

Dons line

  • Win: 0.3% x 0.9 x 30% = +0.081%

  • Loss: 0.3% x 30% = -0.09%

Blues line

  • Win: 2.8% x 0.88 x 30% = +0.074%

  • Loss: 2.8% x 30% = -0.084%

Altogether, about 3.2% of the Combined Portfolio is at risk and the maximum upside is just under 1.4%.

To finish, here are MoSS2020's and MoSH2020's opinions about likely team scoring.

Commentary about these forecasts will come in the week's Overs/Unders blog and MoSHPlay’s various forecasts will be posted after the relevant team line-ups are made public.