2019 - Team Ratings After Round 1

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For only the third time in their history, and for the first time in 12 months, GWS sit atop both MoS Team Rating System rankings after jumping three places on MoSSBODS and four on MoSHBODS to nudge Richmond back into second on both Systems.

Both Systems make relatively larger adjustments in the early parts of a season - the better to align themselves with the realities of off-season changes in team abilities - and GWS used that opportunity to register large gains on the back of a 72 point and 17 Scoring Shot victory over Essendon.

There were other big movers, too, with Hawthorn, Port Adelaide, the Brisbane Lions, and Fremantle all climbing by at least three places on MoSSBODS, and Hawthorn, Port Adelaide, Geelong, and the Brisbane Lions doing a similar thing on MoSHBODS.

The largest declines were recorded by West Coast, Melbourne, Essendon, Adelaide, St Kilda, and North Melbourne on MoSSBODS, and by West Coast, Melbourne, and North Melbourne on MoSHBODS.

(For details on how MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS have been built and how to interpret their ratings, follow this link).

Both Systems have the same Top 2 teams, and differ in their rankings of all but Geelong by no more than two places. The Cats currently sit 6th on MoSSBODS and 3rd on MoSHBODS.

Turning next to the component ratings of the two MoS Systems we find that GWS is ranked 1st offensively and defensively by both Systems, and that both Systems have identical Top 4s on offence, comprising, in order, GWS, Richmond, Melbourne, and Adelaide.

They also have identical Top 4s on defence, comprising GWS, Port Adelaide, Richmond and Collingwood.

Looking across all 18 teams we find that:

  • on offence, only Collingwood (10th on MoSSBODS, 6th on MoSHBODS) is ranked more than two places differently by either System

  • on defence, no team is ranked more than two places differently by either System

This agreement has been reached despite significant levels of team reshuffling. MoSSBODS moved eight teams by more than two places on offence, and nine by more than two places on defence, and the equivalent counts for MoSHBODS were eight and five.

Lastly for this week, let's take a look at MoS' veteran Team Rating Systems, MARS and ChiPS.

They also make relatively larger adjustments early in the season and, as a result, have also reshuffled the teams considerably.

That reshuffling has moved GWS into 2nd on both Systems, but left Richmond in top spot, about 5 Rating Points ahead on ChiPS, and just over 4 Rating Points ahead on MARS.

In total, ChiPS has moved seven teams by more than a single spot, and MARS has moved four, leaving only Hawthorn (3rd on ChiPS and 6th on MARS) ranked more than two places differently by the two Systems.

Looking across the rankings of all four Systems and ordering the teams based on the current competition ladder (which couldn’t reasonably be considered a reliable ordering after only one round), we find that:

  • Sydney has the widest range of rankings, from 7th on ChiPS to 14th on MoSSBODS

  • No other team is ranked more than three places differently across the four Systems

Those are quite high levels of agreement so early in the season.

This, I’m sure, will change …