2019 - Round 2 : Overs/Unders Update
/Turns out that the MoS twins still aren’t buying the “higher scores are coming” narrative.
The only game in which they foresee a higher total score than the bookmakers is the one where rain is forecast - the Swans v Crows clash - and elsewhere they suggest that totals will be about one to four goals lower. Overall, the twins’ average forecast is a little over two goals per game lower than the bookmakers’.
Both MoS models predict the Power v Blues game will be the lowest-scoring of the round, while the two bookmakers, possibly influenced by the aforementioned weather forecast, predict the Swans v Crows game will be. The round’s highest-scoring game is projected to be the Roos v Lions clash according to all four forecasters
Carlton will provide the round’s lowest team score according to all four forecasters, and Richmond the round’s highest team score according to the MoS twins and the TAB. Easybet, narrowly, have Fremantle ahead.
The MoS twins have no teams breaking 100 points, the TAB has Essendon and Port Adelaide just managing it, and Easybet has that pair plus Fremantle racking up three digits.
WAGERS
Yesterday, unwisely, I was imagining that Investors would be in for a quieter week on unders/overs betting, but by now you’ve probably already assembled the pieces and realised that’s a yeah, nah …
Eight unders wagers then, with estimated overlays ranging from about 7 to 21 points and we are, again, summoning dark skies over footy grounds …
