2019 - Round 10 : Overs/Unders
/This week, it’s almost as if the bookmakers took MoSSBODS’ totals forecasts and randomly perturbed them slightly to come up with their own opinions. Their average expected totals are within one point of MoSSBODS’ (and not much more different from MoSHBODS’).
There’s broad agreement again, too, about which will likely be the high-scoring game (Dockers v Lions, although MoSHBODS thinks the Dogs v Roos game is about equally-likely), and about which will be the likely low-scoring game (Suns v Cats).
We see a little more debate about which will be the likely high-scoring team, with MoSSBODS opting for the Pies, MoSSBODS for the Saints, and the TAB and Easybet both opting for the Cats. All four though feel that the Suns are the most-likely low-scoring team for the round.
Interestingly, no team is expected to register a three-figure score according to any of the four forecasters.
PERFORMANCE TO DATE
It was another good round for the bookmakers last weekend as, between them, they registered the lowest mean absolute error (MAE) on all four measures for the second week in a row.
However, that still left MoSHBODS 1st overall for the season on Home Team Score MAE and Total Score MAE, and MoSSBODS 1st on Game Margin MAE and Away Team Score MAE, albeit with reduced leads.
I do wonder just how long the MoS twins can hang on, however, in the face of demonstrably superior pre-game information.
WAGERS
It’s a little disappointing that, in the week where the TAB offers $1.90 prices in the Totals markets, MoSSBODS can find no value in any of them, but that’s where we’ve ended up this week.
In none of the nine games does our estimated overlay exceed 5 points.
After last week, MoSSBODS record against the TAB remained at 7 and 4, while that against Easybet slipped to 18 and 11, which dropped the overall win rate fractionally to 63% for the season.
Across all games, MoSSBODS is now at 62% against the TAB and 64% against Easybet, while MoSHBODS is at 62% against both the TAB and Easybet.
