2019 - Round 1 : Overs/Unders Update
/MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS are always living in the past, since they take their cues from history and are blind to things like rule changes that might influence the patterns of scoring in the new season.
As a result, their forecasts for the total scores in all nine games are more in keeping with the scores from the back end of 2018 than with the bookmakers’ expectations in Round 1. Although, even by 2018 standards, the MoS twins are expecting some quite low scores.
Both MoS models predict the Dogs v Swans game will be the lowest-scoring of the round, an opinion that’s shared by the Easybet bookmaker, albeit at a total almost 4 goals higher. On the TAB, it’s the Pies v Cats game that’s expected to produce fewest points.
The round’s highest-scoring game is projected to be the Saints v Suns clash according to MoSSBODS, and the Crows v Hawks matchup according to MoSHBODS, and the two bookmakers.
Carlton will provide the round’s lowest team score and Richmond the round’s highest team score according to all four forecasters.
WAGERS
As a logical consequence of MoSSBODS’ hugely differing opinions about the forecast total scores in each game, the Over/Under Fund is very active this round.
You might even go as far as to say frantic …
Yes, that is nine unders wagers in nine games. It’s at this point that I begin to truly appreciate the decision to reduce the weight of the Over/Under Fund in the Combined Portfolio this year.
That, and start to hope for a lot of rain over the week few days …
