2018 - Round 7 : Overs/Unders Update

/

There are high levels of agreement this week across the four forecasters, with the range of totals across the quartet in the nine games no higher than 9.5 points in any of them. The two bookmakers are especially close in their opinions, perhaps partly because the TAB waited until today (Thursday) to reveal theirs, just 36 hours or so before the start of the round, and having had a couple of days to reflect on Centrebet's.

Across the nine games, totals are generally expected to be low, with only the Dons v Hawks game topping 180 points according to the MoS twins, and no game at all doing it according to the bookmakers.

We have:

MOST LIKELY HIGH-SCORING GAME

  • All : Essendon v Hawthorn

MOST LIKELY LOW-SCORING GAME

  • MoSSBODS & MoSHBODS : Richmond v Fremantle
  • TAB : Geelong v GWS, and St Kilda v Melbourne
  • Centrebet : St Kilda v Melbourne

MOST LIKELY HIGH-SCORING TEAM

  • MoSSBODS : Adelaide and Richmond
  • MoSHBODS, TAB & Centrebet : Adelaide

MOST LIKELY LOW-SCORING TEAM

  • MoSSBODS & MoSHBODS : Fremantle
  • TAB & Centrebet : Carlton

 

Looking at MoSHBODS' probability estimates for the week we see that Adelaide, Richmond, Hawthorn and Collingwood are all assessed as having a better than 10% chance of being the round's high-scoring team, and that only Fremantle and Carlton have a better than 10% chance of being the round's low-scoring team.

The Dons v Hawks game has easily the greatest chances of being the round's high-scoring game at just over 20%, while every game except that one is estimated as having a 10 to 14% chance of being the low-scoring game.

WAGERS

The higher levels of agreement mean fewer wagers this week - investors have just three

In none of them is the estimated overlay greater than nine points and, for the first time this season, we've more overs than unders wagers in a round. There is a forecast of rain for the Cats' game on Friday night, which could make the overs bet there a bit more challenging for Investors, but the Saints' game is at Docklands so, leaks aside, Investors should face no similar difficulties with their overs wager there. 

PERFORMANCE TO DATE

Last week, MoSSBODS was on the correct side of the TAB's totals in six of the nine games, and of Centrebet's totals in five, while MoSHBODS registered six against both the TAB and Centrebet,

That gives MoSSBODS a season-long 54% record against the TAB and Centrebet, and gives MoSHBODS also a 54% record against the TAB but a much more impressive 57% record against Centrebet.

In games on which it has wagered, MoSSBODS is 10 from 18 (56%) against the TAB, and 7 from 14 (50%) against Centrebet.

Centrebet was the standout forecaster last week, registering the lowest mean absolute errors (MAEs) for home team scores, away team scores, The TAB recorded the lowest MAE for game margins.

So good were Centrebet's MAEs that it now leads on the season-long view for home team scores, away team scores and game totals. The TAB has low MAE for game margin forecasts.