2018 - Round 3 Results - A Good Week for the Bookmakers
/As we expected, there was quite a spread in the forecaster performances this week, especially amongst the Head-to-Head Tipsters.
Best for the Head-to-Head Tipsters were ENS_Linear's and MoSHBODS_Marg's 8 from 9, worst was Consult The Ladder's 4, and the all-Tipster average was 6.7.
These results left ENS_Linear one tip clear of the field on 19 from 27 (70%).
Across the Margin Predictors, Bookie_3 returned the round's lowest mean absolute error (MAE) at 19.1 points per game, while C_Marg finished with 26.3 points per game, over 3.5 points per game worse than the next-lowest MAE of 22.7 from MoSHBODS_Marg.
That moved Bookie_3 back into 1st place on the Leaderboard, and C_Marg back into last place.
The all-Predictor average for the round was a very acceptable 21.2 points per game, which moved the season all-Predictor average to 24.7 points per game. By historical standards, that's a very low average. Almost certainly that figure will regress toward 30 in the coming weeks.
Amongst the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors, scores were very similar to those we saw in Round 1, though, unlike then, MoSSBODS_Prob this week recorded the best Probability Score. C_Prob, while still returning a positive Probability Score, did worst of the six Predictors.
That left Bookie_LPSO in 1st place on the Leaderboard, and C_Prob in last.
WAGERS
Another loss this week - the third in succession - the bleeding staunched only by three collects on Sunday afternoon, one on the Dogs and two on the Eagles, which limited the loss to 1.7c for the round.
That leaves the Combined Portfolio down 3.3c on the season, the result of a -11.4% ROI on about a 0.3 turn.
