2018 - Round 10 : Who Knows?

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This week's truncated footy fare is estimated to be more competitive than last week's but less competitive than the 2018 season-to-date.

The all-game average expected margin is 19.5 points per game, roughly equal to the figure for Round 6, and the equal fourth-highest figure for the year-to-date. 

As Round 10s go, however, it's less than average, above the figures for 2014 and 2017, but less than the figures for 2012, 2013, 2015 and 2016.

What's driving up the average are expected margins of more than four goals for the Richmond v St Kilda, Brisbane Lions v Sydney, and Geelong v Carlton games. What's ameliorating that average are expected margins of under a goal for the Hawthorn v West Coast, Melbourne v Adelaide, and Fremantle v Kangaroos games.

 Anyway, onto the MoS forecasters.

TIPS AND PREDICTIONS

Home Sweet Home aside, there are only two games for which there are contrarian Head-to-Head Tipsters: the RSMP twins' selecting Adelaide in their clash with Melbourne, and the MoS twins' selecting Fremantle in their clash with North Melbourne.

If the RSMP tipsters are correct, they'll join Bookie Knows Best in equal second place behind ENS_Linear at the end of the round. If they're wrong then they risk being joined in equal third by the MoS twins should Fremantle beat North Melbourne in the last game of the round.

Amongst the Margin Predictors, it's once again Bookie_3 and C_Marg who are the most extreme this week, their forecasts being the most or least enthusiastic about the home team in four of the eight contests.

Relative to the current leader, Bookie_Hcap, a best set of results for MoSSBODS_Marg would see it move from about 120 to about 60 points behind. A best set of results for MoSHBODS_Marg would see it move from about 112 to about 72 points behind. Clearly, it's now going to be a long haul to get either of the MoS Predictors anywhere near the top of the Leaderboard.

At the game level, there are two games with MADs of 5.0 points per Predictor or more, Richmond v St Kilda, and Geelong v Carlton, with C_Marg a significant contributor to the MAD in the first of that pair, and MoSSBODS_Marg a significant contributor in the second.

The mean expected margin across the eight games this week and all Margin Predictors is 19.6 points per game. 

Turning lastly to the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors we find C_Prob as the only Predictor most extreme in four contests, and MoSSBODS_Prob, MoSHBODS_Prob and Bookie_LPSO as the only Predictors most extreme in three.

The GWS v Essendon game carries this week's largest MAD at 4.7% points per Predictor, driven up by the relatively high probability estimate offered by C_Prob. 

WAGERS

Investors face five head-to-head and four line wagers this week, the largest of the head-to-head bets just under 2% on GWS at $1.45, and the largest of the line bets 3.5% on Carlton +48.5 at $1.90

(Please click on the image below to access a larger version.)

The ready reckoner, which quantifies those wagers' collective risk, appears below, and shows a fairly even spread of risk for the second week in a row.

The greatest upside belongs to the Brisbane Lions v Sydney game, which could add 1.2c to the value of the Combined Portfolio should the Lions win. Not far behind is the Geelong v Carlton game, where a suitably small Blues loss could add 1.1c to the value of the Combined Portfolio. No game carries a downside of more than 1.2c, that maximum seen in the Geelong v Carlton game and triggered by a Blues loss of over 8 goals.

In total, 4.6% of the original Combined Portfolio is at risk and the maximum upside is about 4.3%.

To finish, here are MoSHBODS' and MoSSBODS' opinions about likely team scoring.

Commentary about these forecasts will come in the week's Overs/Unders blog.