2017 - Round 22 : Overs/Unders Update
/In yet another round where the four forecasters are predicting a sub-180 average Total, only five teams are expected to score 100 points by at least one of them.
All of them have Essendon, Melbourne, and St Kilda registering three figures, and all but MoSHBODS have GWS doing the same thing. Centrebet alone thinks Hawthorn get there too, albeit only just.
The four agree that Melbourne are the most likely high-scoring team (although MoSSBODS thinks Essendon will score about as many as Melbourne), and also agree that Fremantle are the most likely low-scoring team.
MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS have the round's high-scoring game as the Suns v Dons clash, with the final total in that game likely to be around 196 to 198 points, while the TAB and Centrebet have it as the Demons v Lions game with a similar total. All four agree that the Dockers v Tigers game will be the round's low scorer with a total somewhere in the 154 to 165 range.
WAGERS
Investors have five overs/unders wagers this week, and there would have been a sixth but for a two-point raising of the Total by Centrebet in the Suns v Dons game while I was waiting for the TAB markets to be posted.
That patience also reduced the overlay by two points in another two of the games in which we've wagers (Blues v Hawks, and Dockers v Tigers), but added two points to the overlay in a third (Crows v Swans). As in most things, exceptional timing is a feat recognisable only post hoc.
Nonetheless, Investors have an estimated 1 to 2 goals overlay for four of the wagers, and nearly a 4 goal overlay in the fifth. In that fifth game, MoSSBODS has Carlton scoring about a goal less than the bookmakers do, and has Hawthorn scoring about 2.5 goals less.
For the two games in which we've overs wagers the weather forecasts are for a "shower or two" in both locations (Adelaide Oval on Friday night, and the MCG on Saturday afternoon). If that rain eventuates, the actual overlay will, of course, be smaller than we've estimated here.
Last week, MoSHBODS turned in the round's best mean absolute error (MAE) on Margins (25.9 points per game) and Away team scores (13.5), while the TAB had the lowest MAEs for Totals (14.6) and for Home team scores (15.6).
That left MoSHBODS still with the best season-long performance on game Margin (28.5), the TAB 1st on Away team scores (17.1) and on Totals (20.7), and Centrebet 1st on Home team scores (17.7).
MoSSBODS picked the right side of the TAB and Centrebet Totals in 4 of the 9 contests last week, and MoSHBODS did the same in 5 of the 9.
Consequently, MoSSBODS' season-long record against the TAB is now 95 from 180 (53%) and against Centrebet 93 from 180 (52%). MoSHBODS' is 95 from 180 (53%) against both the TAB and Centrebet.
