Regular readers will know that many of the MoS forecasters use no player or bookmaker price information, which leaves them potentially exposed in weeks where teams' lists are materially different from their regular list or where motivation levels might not be normal levels.

That always makes me a little nervous at this time of year,

Overall, the TAB bookmaker is seeing this round much like the previous one, at least in terms of the average difference in team abilities, although there are four games expected to be won by more than 20 points. The average expected margin of 17.4 points per game is, however, almost 10 points lower than the averages for the same round in any of the previous five seasons.

Disagreement levels amongst the Head-to-Head Tipsters are low this week at 18% but, let's face it, it's been a year generally of harmony and accord across the Head-to-Head Tipster community. If only that spirit had extended more broadly.

Only Home Sweet Home has opted for an underdog in more than one game (it doing so in five), and only ENS_Linear, C_Marg, MoSHBODS_Marg and MoSSBODS_Marg have done it otherwise at all.

Four of those underdog tips are for the Dogs, including MoSSBODS_Marg's tip. The two RSMP Tipsters are on Port Adelaide however, so a Port win will tie things up at the head of the MoS Leaderboard.

There are also high levels of agreement across the Margin Predictors, and a record low would almost certainly have been set but for the contrarianism of C_Marg. Its mean absolute deviation (MAD) of 8.7 points per game is the only one above 3.5.

MoSHBODS_Marg now leads the two RSMP Predictors by about 22 points, and will see that lead change depending on the outcomes of each game roughly as follows:

Increase by 1 point over the RSMP Predictors if Adelaide win by 10 points or more
Increase by 6 points over the RSMP Predictors if Port Adelaide win by 2 points or more
Increase by 5 points over the RSMP Predictors if Geelong win by 5 points or less
Increase by 2 points over the RSMP Predictors if GWS win by 22 points or less
Increase by 1 point over the RSMP Predictors if Hawthorn win by 14 points or more
Increase by 7 points over the RSMP Predictors if Melbourne win by 37 points or less
Increase by 1 point over the RSMP Predictors if St Kilda win by 18 points or more
Increase by 6 points over the RSMP Predictors if Richmond win by 21 points or more

Looking from a game-by-game perspective, only two games carry a MAD of greater than 4 points per Predictor, the highest MAD of 4.3 coming in the Adelaide v Sydney game where the forecasts span about a 3 goal range but with only C_Marg and MoSSBODS_Marg forecasting a Crows win outside the 8 to 11 point range.

The Head-to-Head Probability Predictors have an Overall MAD for the round of 3.6% points per Predictor per game, which is well below the all-season average of 4.3% but is only this high because of C_Prob's 7.7% point per game MAD. The ChiPS-related forecasters are really going off-script at the end of the 2017 season.

Thanks largely to C_Prob, the games eliciting the largest MADs are the Crows v Swans (6.3%), Pies v Cats (5.3%), and Blues v Hawks (4.9%) clashes.

MoSHBODS_Prob, our current leader, would be hurt most by a Collingwood loss or a Fremantle win though, again this week, neither result would be especially damaging to it.

WAGERS

In a very subdued week of wagering, Investors have just four head-to-head and a lone line bet, with none of them larger than 2% of the respective Fund.

In total, the eight wagers represent 1.4% of initial Overall Funds, which is the second-lowest single round total of the season, behind only the 1.3% of the six-game Round 13.

Upside and downside, such as there is, lies mostly in the hands of the Pies and the Blues, with best versus worst results in those games capable of altering the value of the Overall Portfolio by about 1% point.