2017 - Round 4 Results - MoSHBODS Continues to Challenge

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As regular readers of this blog will know, one of the aspects of the 2017 season that I was particularlylooking forward to was the battle between MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS, and between both of them and the other MoS forecasters, especially those based on the TAB Bookmaker's opinions.

So far, both of the MoS brothers have acquitted themselves well, though moreso in the field of margin prediction than in head-to-head tipping or probability estimation.

This week, best amongst the Head-to-Head Tipsters were the six of them that correctly predicted the outcome in seven of the games, among them ENS_Linear and the two RSMP Tipsters, who remain tied in first place now on 24 from 36 (67%).

C_Marg, despite managing only six from nine did at least drag itself one tip ahead of Home Sweet Home who now sits last on the ladder with an 18 from 36 (50%) record. There really only is so much that a home ground advantage can do for some teams ...

The all-Tipster average for the round was 6.3 correct tips from 9 games.

C_Marg did even better as a margin predictor this week, recording the round's best mean absolute error (MAE) of 22.6 points per game, which was more than 3 points per game better than the second-best Predictor, MoSHBODS_Marg.

Overall, the week's results saw an all-Predictor average MAE of 26.8 points per game, and left MoSSBODS_Marg at the top of the Leaderboard for the second successive week, now 16 points clear of the field.

MoSHBODS_Marg remains in 2nd, and Bookie_Hcap in 3rd, ENS_Linear the big mover of the week, climbing two places from 6th into 4th.

Amongst the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors, C_Prob struggled again this week, recording the round's worst (and only negative) probability score. The three bookmaker-based Predictors did best, foremost amongst them Bookie_OE who heads the Leaderboard. MoSSBODS_Prob did better than MoSHBODS_Prob, and remains ahead on the full-season view.

WAGERS 

MoSHBODS_Prob's relatively lacklustre round spelled trouble for the Head-to-Head Fund, which landed only 2 of its 6 wagers on the weekend, falling by almost 11c as a consequence. It still remains up on the season however, but now only by about 2c.

MoSSBODS' opinions led to a 1 in 4 record for the Line Fund, though the sizeable bet on the Crows was enough for that single successful bet to more than wipe out the losses on the other three. So, the Line Fund edged up - by just 0.6c to finish the round up by 8c on the season.

The Over/Under Fund is also powered by MoSSBODS, and it collected on only 3 of its 7 wagers, dropping 3c as a result to end the round up by only 4c on the season. One of the four losses was by half a point however, and would have been another collect had I waited for the more-generous total offered by Centrebet.

In total, the Overall Portfolio lost 3c on the round to finish Round 4 up by 5% on the season.