2016 - Team Ratings After Round 13

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Fewer teams in action in Round 13 meant that ChiPS and MARS had less reason to re-rate and re-rank teams this week, MARS ultimately moving seven teams and ChiPS just five. 

Sydney were the big climbers on MARS, rising three places back into 1st, while Fremantle were the only other team to rise by more than a single spot, they rising two places into 10th. Two teams fell by more than a spot on MARS, Adelaide slipping two places - despite not playing - into 4th, and Melbourne slipping two places - after playing, but maybe wishing they didn't - into 12th.

On ChiPS, Geelong were the lone multi-place climbers, moving from 4th into 1st, while GWS were the only team to drop by more than a place, falling two spots into 3rd.

In previous weeks we've been tracking the gaps opening up around the middle ranking places on MARS and ChiPS Ratings. This week those gaps have narrowed a little on ChiPS, the largest mid pack group that of 6 Rating Points (RPs) between the Western Bulldogs in 8th and Port Adelaide in 9th.

On MARS though, a particularly large gap has formed of over 17 RPs between Port Adelaide in 9th and Fremantle in 10th.

Both Systems now have the same teams in their Top 9s and in their Bottom 9s, just in different orders. The largest differences in those orderings are for:

  • Geelong, ranked 5th by MARS and 1st by ChiPS
  • GWS, ranked 6th by MARS and 3rd by ChiPS
  • Hawthorn, ranked 2nd by MARS and 6th by ChiPS

MoSSBODS RATINGS

MoSSBODS re-ranked just half a dozen teams this week, and only one, Melbourne, by more than a single place. They were shunted down three spots into 14th, mostly on account of their generating just 11 Scoring Shots against the Swans.

Looking at component ratings we find that only six team's Offensive rankings changed, and none by more than a single spot, and that only four team's Defensive rankings changed, also none by more than a single spot.

After all the various re-ratings, MoSSBODS now has Geelong in 1st, Adelaide in 2nd, and the Western Bulldogs in 3rd.

When looked at in an historical context, Geelong's current ratings are especially impressive, placing them in the Top 10% of all previous Grand Finalists at this point in the season.

Like MARS, MoSSBODS draws a sharp line between the ratings of the Top and Bottom 9 teams, the gap on Combined Ratings between Port Adelaide and Collingwood on MoSSBODS coming in at about 2.3 Scoring Shots. Vanishingly few teams have made the Grand Final in years past with ratings as low as Collingwood's or lower at this point in the season.

Comparing MoSSBODS' team rankings with those of MARS and ChiPS, we find three teams for which the differences are significant:

  • The Western Bulldogs: ranked 3rd by MoSSBODS, but 8th by MARS and ChiPS
  • Sydney: ranked 7th by MoSSBODS, but 1st by MARS and 2nd by ChiPS
  • Collingwood: ranked 10th by MoSSBODS, but 13th by MARS and 14th by ChiPS

One other thing perhaps worth noting is that MoSSBODS' Top 3 (Geelong/Adelaide/Western Bulldogs) has no teams in common with MARS' Top 3 (Sydney/Hawthorn/West Coast), and only Geelong in common with ChiPS' Top 3 (Geelong/Sydney/GWS).

Lastly, here's the animated round-by-round MoSSBODS Rating view, which I'm coming to think of as The AFL Dance.