2015 - Round 13 Results: Largely Predictable
/The Swans were the only favourites to lose this weekend and victory margins in all games were under 40 points, which made for a round of relatively strong performances by all MoS Tipster and Predictor groups.
(A reminder to Investors that we had no wagers this weekend, so the net position of both Funds and of the Overall Portfolio is as it was at the end of Round 12 - which is to say, not entirely well).
The weakest performance, collectively, came from the Head-to-Head Tipsters, who produced a 4.5 from 6 average, lowered mostly by scores of 3 and 4 from the Heuristic Tipsters but constrained further still by the fact that no Tipster correctly selected all 6 results.
As foreshadowed pre-round, there were no movements at the top of the Head-to-Head Tipsters ladder, the Top 11 Tipsters all correctly surmising the results in 5 of the 6 contests. That leaves the four leaders on 75 from 108, which is a 69.4% record. At the other end of the ladder, Home Sweet Home's last-placed performance reflects the fact that home teams continue to struggle this season, their collective record now a parlous 52 and 56. This year we've seen not a Home Ground Advantage but a mere right to be named as the first team for the fixture.
Margin prediction was ludicrously easy for the MoS Predictors this week, with even the worst of them (Combo_NN2) managing a sub-26 Mean Absolute Error (MAE) while the best (ProPred_7) recorded an 11.77 MAE and the average came in at a season-low 16.6 points per game per Predictor.
C_Marg's 14.5 MAE was enough to leave it atop the MoS Leaderboard, still trailed by the two RSMP Predictors. Combo_7 has now elevated itself into 4th, and Bookie_9 into 5th.
Just three Predictors now have a season-long profitable line betting record: C_Marg, Bookie_3, and Combo_NN2. As it happens, these are three of the four Predictors that have most often been nearest the flag with their margin tips so far this season.
The Head-to-Head Probability Predictors recorded their collective 3rd-best average probability score of the season at +0.27 bits per game per Predictor. Best was WinPred's 0.35, followed by C_Prob's 0.30 and ProPred's 0.29, none of which changed the ordering on the MoS Leaderboard, which still sees Bookie-OE at the top, the two other Bookie-based Predictors in 2nd and 3rd, then C_Prob in 4th.
The Line Fund algorithm recorded a very slightly negative probability score, but one that was less negative that its previous season average, which meant that its season average improved a little this week.
