2015 - Round 13 : Wanna Bet

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For the first time in a home and away season round since I can remember - which must surely make it at least four or five weeks - none of the MoS Funds has seen fit to place a wager.

The Head-to-Head Fund had only three games to consider, its $1.50 minimum price precluding any possibility of a wager on Fremantle, Sydney or Hawthorn, but the Line Fund had all six home teams to assess as candidates for line wagers, but felt that the four favourites were being forced to offer too much start and the two underdogs being offered too little.

So, for the first time since Round 9, the Overall Portfolio will finish this extended weekend no smaller than when it started.

HEAD-TO-HEAD TIPSTERS

Disagreement levels amongst the Head-to-Head Tipsters have returned to their low levels of Rounds 7 to 10, far below the 22 percents we saw in both of the truncated Rounds 11 and 12. 

Again, of course, it's Home Sweet Home bumping up overall disagreement levels, this week in the company of Silhouette, Short Term Memory II, and Follow The Streak. Driving levels down are the 17 Tipsters that all have Indexes of 9%, which includes the eight Tipsters currently filling places 1 through 8 on the MoS Leaderboard.

So, again, don't expect any changes in the ordering of the MoS Head-to-Head Tipster elite.

In two contests this week we see unanimous Tipster favourites, and in two more we find just a single dissenter, Home Sweet Home in one contest and Follow The Streak in another. That leaves just two games where there's any significant minority suuport to speak of: in the Saints v Dogs game, where six Tipsters are predicting a Saints upset, and in the Blues v Suns game, where eight have opted for a Suns surprise.

MARGIN PREDICTION

Agreement is also at near-peak levels amongst the Margin Predictors this week, the all-Predictor Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) of 5.3 points per game per Predictor the third-lowest of the season.

Far from driving up the overall MAD this week, C_Marg is in the unprecedented position of having the round's second-lowest MAD, bettered only by Combo_7 whose MAD is lowest of all Predictors for the second week running. Combo_NN2 has by far the highest MAD, its figure of 13 points per game six points higher than Bookie_3's next-highest figure of 7 points per game.

Viewed on a game-by-game basis, the highest MADs have come in the Swans v Tigers and Dockers v Pies games, these the only games with a MAD in excess of a goal. The Saints v Dogs game has the round's smallest MAD with the 19 Predictors combining to produce a MAD of just 2.6 points.

The Carlton v Gold Coast game is the only game with multiple Predictors on the unpopular side of a zero prediction. There, the four H2H Predictors are tipping an upset Suns victory.

C_Marg, the MoS Competition leader, generally finds itself near the median prediction in every game and is not Predictor Most Extreme in any of them. The nearest it gets is in the Blues v Suns contest where its predicted victory margin of 15-points for the Blues is the 2nd-highest behind Combo_NN1's 28-point prediction.

PROBABILITY PREDICTORS

Completing the round's picture of broad harmony and agreement, MoS' Head-to-Head Probability Predictors have turned in their lowest MAD of the season, a tiny 4% points per game per Predictor.

WinPred and C_Prob have the round's two highest MADs, and even theirs have come in below 5% points per game. Bookie-OE, which currently heads the MoS Leaderboard has the round's lowest MAD of just 2.8% points per game. Bookie-LPSO, which sits 3rd on the Leaderboard, is the most divergent of the Bookie trio this week and, with favourable results, will bridge the gap to Bookie-RE in 2nd.

The Blues v Suns game has generated the broadest set of opinions, the MAD in that game just under 8% points per Predictor, and the range 25% points and bookended by C_Prob's 66% assessment of the Blues' chances, and the H2H pair's 41% assessment.

Two teams have been assessed by the Line Fund algorithm as enjoying about 60% or better chances in their respective line markets: the Gold Coast (66%), and Collingwood (60%). Richmond's chances are assessed as being almost as high (59%), whilst the Dogs come in at 53%, the Lions at 52%, and the Hawks at 51%.

DISAGREEMENT LEVELS

Again this week you can gain an understanding of just how low the disagreement levels are by seeing them in the context of history.