2014 - Round 23 : Same As Last Week?

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The Head-to-Head Fund has again this week, as it did in Round 21, reacted to an increase in a team's Head-to-Head price by opting out of a wager. This week the team was Carlton, on whom the Head-to-Head Fund fancied a lash when it made its first assessments for the week as the Blues were being offered at $2.90. But, come Tuesday when the Blues had drifted to $3.15, the Head-to-Head Fund decided to look elsewhere.

Collingwood's Head-to-Head price also drifted during the same period though far more dramatically, from an opening price of $6.60, at which the Head-to-Head Fund was mildly interested, to an eventual price of $9.50, which encouraged the Fund to make a 2.8% bet, its sole investment for the round. I've no issue with this level of discernment from a Fund that's 3 from 3 for the past two rounds and up 15% on the season from just 52 wagers.

The Line Fund has been considerably busier than the Head-to-Head Fund in recent weeks as well as in this one where it's made five selections, exactly as it did in Rounds 20, 21 and 22. In three of this week's wagers the Fund is giving start and in two it's receiving start.

Consistent with the theme of Fund consistency in wagering, the Margin Fund has this week made six pairs of wagers, also exactly the same number as it made last week. The set contains one pair that define an enormous Chasm of Despair, bordered on one side by a Swans win by 10 to 19 points and on the other by a Swans win by 40 to 49 points. The Line market handicap for this game falls mid-chasm, elevating a portion of the chasm floor and generally making for an especially twisted Ready Reckoner profile for this contest.

A Pies upset victory would be by far the best result for Investors as it would add over 7c to the price of the Recommended Portfolio. Other good results include a Fremantle victory by 14 to 19 points, worth a little over 2c, and a Swans win by 40-49 points, worth just a little more again.

Fremantle, Sydney and Adelaide are capable of inflicting the largest Portfolio losses, each of about 1.7c and resulting from any of a Freo win by 9 points or less, a Swans win by 9 points or less or by 20 to 22 points, or a Crows win by 39 points or less or by 50 to 56 points.

In aggregate there's about 9.5% of the Portfolio at risk with a maximum possible increase of just under 18%.

TIPS AND PREDICTIONS

The final game of the home-and-away season has produced the most disagreement amongst the Head-to-Head Tipsters, with 14 selecting the home team Dogs and 14 the travelling Giants. In the Fremantle v Port Adelaide game six Tipsters form the minority support for Port, but in no other contest is there a minority larger than 2. That's made for generally small Disagreement Indexes for each team and for the Tipsters as a whole. Home Sweet Home once again defies the trend, however, and comes in with an Index of 42%, just a little ahead of Ride Your Luck on 37%.

Margin Predictors are unanimous in their implicit predictions of the winning teams in every game except the Dogs v Giants game where there are six dissenting voices foreshadowing a Giants victory. That game also has the widest range of margin predictions, which span almost nine goals. The spans in six other games are wider than five goals, leaving only the Blues v Dons, and Suns v Eagles as games where both the victor and the margin of victory are broadly agreed.

Bookie_3 has the week's high Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) from the all-Predictor average at just over 12 points per game, though it's Extreme Predictor in only two games. C_Marg, Combo_NN_2 and WIn_7 are all Extreme Predictors in more games (three each), though they each have smaller MADs - in C_Marg's case, much smaller. Bookie_9, Combo_7 and the two ProPreds have the round's smallest MADs.

Like the Margin Predictors, the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors are unanimous in every contest except the last where they're arrayed 5-3 in favour of the Dogs. Probability ranges for each game start at a low of 7% points for the Roos v Dees game to a high of 34% for the Dogs v Giants matchup.

C_Prob, which is Extreme Predictor in the Roos v Dees game, occupies the same position in three more games but has emerged with only the round's second-highest MAD. WinPred, which is Extreme Predictor in six games has the highest MAD, almost 30% greater than C_Prob's. ProPred has the round's smallest MAD, but it's a tad late in the season for it to be playing safe.

Only three teams this week have been assessed by the Line Fund algorithm as 60% chances or better in the Line Market: GWS (73%), Gold Coast (61%), and Carlton (60%). The remaining six teams have probabilities in a narrow range spanning 53% to 57%.

ChiPS PREDICTIONS

Fremantle is this week the only team Rated lower by ChiPS than its opponents that is nonetheless expected to prevail. Its 2 Point lower Rating and its poorer Form is more than offset by its HGA and the contribution of the Interstate Status bonus.

Three teams are priced attractively enough in the Head-to-Head market to elicit wagering recommendations from ChiPS: Carlton, Sydney and the Gold Coast.